San Marcos de Arica1-2Rangers de Talca

This Round 22 Primera B fixture sees San Marcos de Arica host Rangers de Talca at Estadio Carlos Dittborn. League table data is unavailable for either side, so this preview leans on recent form and the model. The model gives the home team a 66.1% win probability and projects a 1-0 scoreline.

San Marcos de Arica have not won in their last five matches, recording two draws and three losses while averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. At home across their last three, they have one win, one draw and one loss, scoring one goal per game and conceding 0.67.

Rangers de Talca are also winless in five, with two draws and three losses, averaging one goal scored and 1.8 conceded. On the road, they have no wins in three, scoring once per away match and conceding two.

There are no prior meetings between these two clubs on record. With no head-to-head history, the fixture provides no statistical baseline for a prediction.

San Marcos de Arica are averaging one goal scored and 0.67 conceded in their last three home matches. Rangers de Talca are averaging one goal scored and two conceded in their last three away matches, and have not won away in that stretch.

Both sides enter after similar rest, six days for San Marcos and seven for Rangers, and neither has won in five matches. The model flags medium confidence, with the home side's edge driven largely by projection rather than current form.

The model gives San Marcos a 66.1% win probability, a 24% draw probability and 9.9% for Rangers. The projected score is 1-0, with 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 20.8%, ahead of 2-0 at 16.6% and 0-0 at 13.1%. Total goals are expected at about 2.04, a 60.3% chance of two or more and a 33.3% chance of three or more; the probability of both teams scoring is 28.4%. On the winning margin, San Marcos by two or more is 37.1%, by one is 29.1%, a draw is 24%, and an away win is 9.8% combined.

The data points to a home win, with a projected 1-0 scoreline and a 66.1% model probability. A different result would likely require Rangers to substantially improve their scoring output, which the provided statistics do not suggest.