San Antonio0-1Oakland Roots

San Antonio host Oakland Roots in a USL Championship round 24 fixture, with the model giving the home side a 68.4% win probability. No league table data is available for either team, and the two sides share an equal seven-day rest. The key early signal is Oakland's scoring output: they have not scored in any of their last three away matches.

San Antonio have three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. At home in the last three they are 2W 0D 1L, with the same 1.67 average for and against.

Oakland Roots are winless in their last five, with three losses and two draws, scoring 0.2 goals per match and conceding one. Away from home the last three read 0W 1D 2L, with zero goals scored.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides. The head-to-head history is therefore unavailable, and this fixture carries no historical pattern to lean on.

San Antonio's recent home form has been solid but not airtight: they have conceded 1.67 per game across their last three at Toyota Field. Oakland's away scoring has been the starkest split, with no goals in their last three road matches while conceding once per game.

Both sides come into this match on seven days of rest, so neither holds a scheduling edge. The absence of league table data limits context around schedule strength. The most important factor the model can identify is the contrast between San Antonio's recent scoring and Oakland's failure to score in their last three away matches.

The model assigns San Antonio a 68.4% win probability, with the draw at 27.6% and Oakland at 4.1% — the projected scoreline is 1-0, also the most likely exact score at 30.3%. Total goals project to about 1.48, with a 43.5% chance of two or more and only a 10.2% chance both sides score. Confidence is medium, and the margin distribution is tight between a home win by two or more (35%) and a home win by one (33.4%), with the draw at 27.6%.

The data points to a low-scoring home victory, built on Oakland's attacking struggles and San Antonio's recent form. A 0-0 draw is the second most likely exact scoreline (22.8%), and the draw probability of 27.6% keeps a goalless result as a live alternative. For Oakland to win outright would require a sharp departure from their recent road output, which the model puts at 4.1%.