San Antonio SpursvsPhoenix Suns

This NBA fixture matches two sides with very different home forms against a backdrop of short rest. The model projects a Spurs win at 63.2% with a 103-99 scoreline.

San Antonio’s last 20 home games are a 12-8 record with an average scoring rate of 113.5 points. Their most recent five games averaged 105.0 points scored and 107.4 conceded.

Phoenix have recorded a 7-13 record in their last 20 away games, scoring 105.6 points per game while conceding 108.5. Their recent five-game stretch averaged 90.8 points scored and 95.8 conceded.

Over eight recorded meetings, Phoenix hold the better record with five wins to three for San Antonio. The combined goal tally of 1,718 points averages 214.75 per game.

While San Antonio’s home games average 113.55 scored points per game, their road record is not available. Phoenix average 105.65 scored points in their last 20 away games.

Both sides face a short turnaround of four days since their previous games. The Spurs home advantage is reflected in their win probability projection.

The model projects the San Antonio Spurs will win by 3.8 points, with the combined points total expected around 202. The most likely win margin for San Antonio is a 1–10 point win.

The data favors San Antonio on the strength of their home performance and a higher projected margin. A win margin of 11+ points or greater is less likely at 27.9%.