Sabah Baku5-2Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Sabah Baku and Hapoel Be'er Sheva meet again at the Bank Respublika Arena, six days after the Israeli side won the first meeting 2-1 at home. The model gives the hosts an 80.1% win probability, with the draw at 17.4% and an away win at just 2.5%. A 1-0 home win is the projected scoreline.

Neither side's league table position is available, so recent form and the single head-to-head meeting are the primary reference points. Sabah Baku have been perfect at home in their last three matches, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva have a strong overall run but a mixed away record.

The home side's clean-sheet record at home contrasts sharply with the away side's recent defensive numbers, and that gap anchors the model's assessment.

Sabah Baku's last five matches read LLWLW, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The most recent of those was the 2-1 defeat in the first leg of this tie.

At home, they have won all three matches on record, averaging 2.33 goals scored and none conceded. That perfect home start, albeit a small sample, is the strongest signal in their form.

The overall recent form is more mixed, with two losses in the last five. But those came before their current home run, and the home numbers offer a clear reason for the model's high expectation.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva have won four of their last five matches, with the only loss in that run coming most recently. They average 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across those five games.

Away from home, their record from the last two matches is one win and one loss, with an average of 1.5 scored and 1 conceded. That is a noticeably less dominant profile than their overall run.

The contrast between their overall and away form adds some uncertainty, but the away side have shown they can score on the road, even if they have not kept clean sheets.

Only one meeting between these sides is on record. That game took place on 2026-08-19, with Hapoel Be'er Sheva winning 2-1 at home.

That single match produced three goals, and no meeting with two or fewer total goals is on record. However, with just one fixture, the head-to-head sample is far too small to draw meaningful conclusions.

The result does give Hapoel Be'er Sheva a narrow historical edge, but it carries little predictive weight.

Sabah Baku's home form in the last three matches is flawless: three wins, an average of 2.33 goals scored and none conceded. That is a small sample, but it points to a strong home setup.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva's away form in the last two matches is one win and one loss, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded. They have not been as solid on the road as overall.

The venue split is the clearest differentiator in the data: the home side have been defensively dominant, while the away side have leaked goals on the road.

Both sides have had six days of rest since their last match, so there is no short-turnaround disadvantage for either team.

With no league table data available, the analysis relies on recent form and the single head-to-head result. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the limited sample sizes.

The main risk factor is the tiny head-to-head sample: the only prior meeting ended in an away win, which gives Hapoel Be'er Sheva a small but concrete reference point. Still, the home form is the dominant signal.

The model gives Sabah Baku an 80.1% win probability, with the draw at 17.4% and an away win at 2.5%. The projected score is 1-0, and the most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (24.9%), 2-0 (23.2%), and 3-0 (14.4%).

Total-goals projection is about 2.01, with a 59.7% chance of at least two goals and a 32.6% chance of at least three. The probability that each side scores at least once is 11.8%.

From the home side's perspective, a win by two or more goals has a 51.6% probability, while a one-goal home win sits at 28.6%. The model therefore sees a decisive home win as more likely than a narrow one, though the 1-0 scoreline remains the single most probable outcome.

The data points to a Sabah Baku home win, with the model giving them an 80.1% chance. Their perfect home record and Hapoel Be'er Sheva's mixed away form align with that projection.

The key caveat is that the only prior meeting went to the away side, and the model's medium confidence acknowledges the limited data. If Hapoel Be'er Sheva can score again, the low 11.8% probability of both teams scoring would be exceeded, and the match could follow a different path.

Ultimately, the model's most likely outcome is a comfortable home win, with 1-0 as the most likely exact scoreline. That is the scenario to expect unless the away side's recent scoring form carries into this fixture.