Real Zaragoza0-1FC Andorra

Real Zaragoza host FC Andorra at La Romareda in a pre-season friendly. Neither side's league position is available for context, so the focus falls on recent results and the model's projection. The most important number is the visitors' 47% win probability, comfortably ahead of the home side's 25.7%.

Zaragoza are playing their first match after a 67-day break, while Andorra had a game 13 days ago. That gap in match sharpness, combined with Andorra's stronger away record over the last 20 matches, shapes the preview.

Real Zaragoza's home record over their last 20 matches reads 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 defeats. They have scored an average of 0.85 goals per game while conceding 1.4, with a win rate of 20%. It is a modest record, one that offers limited comfort for a season opener.

Their recent form heading into the break was poor: five matches produced four defeats and one draw, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. That run ended on 31 May, and the long layoff means those results are now several weeks old.

FC Andorra's away form over the last 20 matches is considerably stronger: 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their 40% win rate on the road is double that of their hosts at home.

Their most recent five matches show a WLLLW pattern, with scoring averaging 2.2 goals per game and conceding 1.6. They last played on 24 July, 13 days before this fixture, which gives them a degree of recent match practice that Zaragoza lacks.

The two sides have met only twice on record. FC Andorra have won both meetings, with Real Zaragoza yet to take a point. The aggregate score across those two matches is 5-2 in Andorra's favour.

Both meetings produced more than two goals, with an average of 3.5 per game. The most recent encounter, in February 2026, ended 2-1 to Andorra, while their August 2025 meeting finished 1-3. With just two meetings, the sample is too small to carry heavy weight, but the record clearly favours the visitors.

This match takes place at Estadio de La Romareda, Real Zaragoza's home ground. Their home numbers over the last 20 matches are modest, with a 20% win rate and a negative goal difference of -0.55 per game (0.85 scored, 1.4 conceded).

FC Andorra's away record over the same sample shows a 40% win rate and a slightly positive goal difference of +0.1 per game (1.5 scored, 1.4 conceded). Based on these splits, the venue does not appear to offer Zaragoza a significant edge.

The clearest factor is rest. Zaragoza have been idle for 67 days since their last match, which marks this as a season opener after an off-season gap. Andorra, by contrast, played 13 days ago and have had more recent competitive tempo.

Schedule strength is not directly measurable here, and neither side has league table data available. The head-to-head sample is also small at two meetings, so the model's output is anchored largely on recent form and home/away splits.

Given the long layoff, there is added uncertainty around Zaragoza's projection. A team starting fresh after a break can perform above or below its historical averages; the model's medium confidence reflects that.

The Poisson model gives FC Andorra a 47% chance of winning, with the draw at 27.3% and Real Zaragoza at 25.7%. The projected scoreline is 0-1, based on expected goal values of 0.95 for the home side and 1.38 for the visitors.

The most likely individual scorelines are 0-1 (13.5%), 1-1 (12.7%) and 0-0 (9.7%). The most likely single scoreline is a narrow away win, which aligns with the highest-probability outcome of an Andorra victory. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the modest sample and the early-season context.

Taken together, the data points toward an away win. Andorra have a superior recent away record, have won both prior meetings, and arrive with more recent match practice. Zaragoza's home form is weak, and they are beginning their season after a lengthy break.

The model's projected 0-1 scoreline reflects a tight but away-favoured contest. What would undermine this reading is if Zaragoza's fresh start produces a sharper display than their recent numbers suggest, or if the small head-to-head sample proves unrepresentative. As a friendly, result expectations should also be tempered.