Real ZaragozavsFC Andorra

This pre-season friendly sees Real Zaragoza play their first competitive match of 2026 after a 67-day break. FC Andorra arrive with a recent outing, their last match coming 13 days ago. The statistical model assigns a 47% win probability to the visitors, with a draw at 27.3% and a home win at 25.7%.

The two sides have met only twice previously, both in 2025 and 2026, and Andorra won both. That includes a 3-1 victory at La Romareda in August 2025. Goals have been plentiful in those meetings, with seven goals across the two fixtures.

No league table data is available for Real Zaragoza, so the most reliable indicators are their recent results and home splits. Over their last 20 home fixtures, they have four wins, six draws, and ten losses, averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. That translates to a 20% home win rate.

Their most recent five matches (all from the tail end of the previous season) produced one draw and four losses, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Their last outing was on 31 May 2026, meaning this friendly represents a fresh start after the off-season break.

FC Andorra also have no league table data on record, but their away numbers from the last 20 games show eight wins, three draws, and nine losses, a 40% win rate. They average 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded away from home.

Their recent five-match run reads W-L-L-L-W, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. That last result was a win on 24 July 2026, so they enter this friendly having played more recently than the hosts.

Only two head-to-head meetings are on record, and FC Andorra have won both. In February 2026, Andorra took a 2-1 home win, and in August 2025 they secured a 3-1 away victory at La Romareda. The aggregate score across these games is 5-2 in Andorra's favor, an average of 3.5 total goals per meeting.

Both fixtures produced at least three goals, but with such a small sample these results offer limited predictive power.

This fixture is at Estadio de La Romareda, where Real Zaragoza have struggled in their last 20 home games, posting a 4-6-10 record. Their 0.85 goals-per-game average at home is modest, while they concede 1.4 on average.

FC Andorra's away form over the same sample is more balanced: eight wins and nine losses from 20, with a scoring average of 1.5 goals and a conceding average identical to Zaragoza's at 1.4. Notably, Andorra's away scoring output is nearly double Zaragoza's home scoring rate.

The primary scheduling factor is the rest disparity. Real Zaragoza have had 67 days off since their last match, making this a true season opener. FC Andorra played 13 days ago, giving them a shorter but perhaps more match-fit preparation. The off-season gap is not a measure of rest quality, but it does mean the hosts may take time to find rhythm.

Another factor is the brevity of the head-to-head record. With only two meetings, it would be unwise to draw strong conclusions from it. The model itself flags medium confidence, indicating that the probabilities carry notable uncertainty.

The Poisson model's projected score is 0-1, with expected goals of 0.95 for Real Zaragoza and 1.38 for FC Andorra. The win probabilities are 25.7% home, 27.3% draw, and 47% away. Because the away win is the single most likely outcome at 47%, the model points to FC Andorra as the favored side.

The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1, at 13.5%, followed by 1-1 at 12.7% and 0-0 at 9.7%. It is important to note that a scoreline is not an outcome; an away win can occur with various scorelines, which is why the aggregate away probability is 47%.

The combined evidence points toward an FC Andorra victory. Their away record is stronger than Zaragoza's home record, they have won both prior meetings, and the model gives them a clear probability advantage. The main caveat is sample size: two head-to-head encounters is too few to rely on, and the model's medium confidence leaves room for alternative results.

Should Real Zaragoza's previously poor home scoring improve, or if the long layoff proves less disruptive than expected, the home side could defy the probabilities. Conversely, if Andorra's recent form carries over, they should be able to extend their head-to-head dominance. The data supports an away win, but not with absolute certainty.