Raków CzęstochowavsHajduk Split

This is a UEFA Conference League fixture at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, with Raków hosting Hajduk Split. The model makes Raków a clear favorite (70.7% win probability) despite the sides having only one prior meeting on record. That single meeting produced a 2-2 draw a week before this match.

Raków have no league table data available, so their recent run provides the read. They are unbeaten in their last two home matches (1W 1D), scoring 1.5 per game and conceding 0.5. Their last five overall reads DLWDL, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, suggesting their home form is somewhat better than their broader recent run.

Hajduk's away record over the last four is split 2W-2L, but they have scored at a healthy clip (2.0 per game) while conceding a similar rate (1.75). Their last five overall (WDWWD) include 2.8 goals scored per match and one conceded, showing a side capable of producing high-scoring games.

The two sides have met only once on record, a 2-2 draw on 20 August 2026 in Split. That is a sample size far too small to draw any reliable conclusions about the fixture. Both teams scored twice, and the match produced four total goals, but there is no further historical pattern to lean on.

Raków have played only two home matches in the data, winning one and drawing one, with a goal difference of 3-1. That home output (1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game) is stronger than their recent overall form (1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded). Hajduk's away splits show volume in both directions: they average 2 goals scored and 1.75 conceded in four away games.

Hajduk arrive on a short turnaround, having played four days earlier on 23 August, while Raków have had a full week (7 days). The head-to-head sample is also minimal, and the model's medium confidence reflects some uncertainty.

The Poisson model gives Raków a 70.7% chance of winning, with the draw at 18.8% and Hajduk at 10.5%. The projected scoreline is 2-0; the model's top exact-score probabilities are 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13.4%) and 3-0 (9.7%). Combined goals are expected around 2.75, with a 76% probability of at least two goals and 51.8% of at least three. The model also sees a 45.7% chance of a home win by two or more goals, versus 25% for a one-goal home win.

The data collectively points to a Raków victory, likely by a comfortable margin, given their strong home numbers and Hajduk's travel and congested schedule. The model's medium confidence and the tiny head-to-head sample are the main caveats. If Hajduk's away scoring rate (2.0 per game) outpaces Raków's home defense (0.5 conceded), the projected 2-0 could fail to materialize.