Racing de Santander1-1Deportivo Alavés

This is a Club Friendly between Racing de Santander and Deportivo Alavés at El Sardinero in August 2026. With no league-table data on record for either side, the analysis relies on the home and away splits provided.

The central contrast is clear: Racing have won 65% of their last 20 home matches, while Alavés have won just 25% of their last 20 away games. A Poisson model projects a 2-0 home win and gives Racing a 77.3% win probability. The main caveat is that Alavés are opening their season after a 76-day off-season break.

Racing de Santander's home record over their last 20 matches at El Sardinero is 13 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. They have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per home match.

Their last five matches, most recent first, read LLWDW, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Racing last played on 29 July 2026, which gives them nine days of rest heading into this fixture.

Deportivo Alavés' away record over their last 20 matches is 5 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.55 conceded per away match. Their away win rate is 25%.

Their last five matches, most recent first, read LWWDL, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Alavés last played on 23 May 2026, and the 76-day gap marks this as their season opener after an off-season break.

No prior meetings between Racing de Santander and Deportivo Alavés are on record.

The head-to-head sample is therefore empty, so it offers no basis for comparison in this preview.

Racing's home numbers at El Sardinero show a 65% win rate, 2.4 goals scored per game, and 1.5 conceded across their last 20 home matches. Alavés' away numbers over the same span are a 25% win rate, 1.0 goal scored, and 1.55 conceded per game.

The venue context supports a home advantage: Racing's home scoring rate is more than double Alavés' away scoring rate, and the home win rate is 40 percentage points higher.

The most prominent factor in the data is the large gap between Racing's home performance and Alavés' away performance. Racing have had nine days of rest, while Alavés are entering after a 76-day layoff, which adds uncertainty as they play their first match of the season.

Neither team has league-table data on record, so the available sample is limited to the provided splits. The model's medium confidence rating reflects that limitation and the unusual timing of this friendly.

The Poisson model gives Racing de Santander a 77.3% win probability, a 13.2% draw probability, and a 9.4% probability for Alavés. The projected scoreline is 2-0, with expected goal values of 2.98 for Racing and 0.99 for Alavés.

The most likely exact scorelines are 2-0 (8.4%), 3-0 (8.4%), and 2-1 (8.3%). The model flags its confidence as medium, meaning the probabilities carry noticeable uncertainty.

The data consistently points to a Racing de Santander home victory. Their 65% home win rate and 2.4 goals per game compare favorably against Alavés' 25% away win rate and 1.0 goal per game. All three of the most probable exact scorelines — 2-0, 3-0, and 2-1 — involve a Racing win.

The key caveat is Alavés' long layoff and season-opening status, which injects uncertainty into any projection. While the model leans heavily toward the home side, the winning margin is not tightly fixed. A narrow win for Racing remains the most data-supported outcome.