Queensland LionsvsPeninsula Power

Queensland Lions welcome Peninsula Power to Luxury Paints Stadium in a Queensland NPL fixture that pits a perfect home record against a winless away run. The model strongly favors the hosts, giving them a 93.8% win probability, though no league table data is available to contextualize the sides' overall positions. Recent form and a single head-to-head meeting both point the same direction.

Queensland Lions have won all three of their last home matches, averaging three goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Their broader recent run reads WWLWW, with 2.2 goals scored per game across the last five. Their most recent outing was on August 25, five days before this fixture.

Peninsula Power are winless in their last four away matches, with two draws and two defeats while averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Their recent form across all venues is DDLDL, scoring 1.4 per game and conceding 1.8. They last played on August 14, giving them 16 days of rest.

The two sides have met only once on record, a 1-0 home win for Queensland Lions on August 1, 2026. With a single sample, the head-to-head offers limited predictive value, though it aligns with the broader form picture.

The home/away splits are stark: Queensland Lions are perfect at home in the limited sample, while Peninsula Power have a 0% away win rate across four matches. The away side concede 1.75 per game on the road, and the home side score three per game at home.

Rest days differ markedly: Peninsula Power have had 16 days since their last match, compared to Queensland Lions' five. The absence of league table data means recent form carries extra weight, and the model's medium confidence reflects the small samples involved.

The model gives Queensland Lions a 93.8% win probability, with a draw at 4.6% and a Peninsula Power win at 1.7%. The projected score is 4-0, with the most likely exact scoreline also 4-0 at 11.5%. It projects about 4.73 total goals, with a 94.8% chance of at least two goals, and an 83.6% chance the home side wins by two or more. Both teams scoring carries only a 41.7% probability.

The data points overwhelmingly to a Queensland Lions win, likely by a comfortable margin. The model's medium confidence and small samples — one head-to-head meeting, four away games for Peninsula Power — mean an upset is unlikely but not impossible. A dominant home performance would be the expected outcome.