Probiy HorodenkavsViktoriya Sumy

Probiy Horodenka host Viktoriya Sumy in Round 5 of the Ukrainian First League. The visitors arrive unbeaten in five matches, while the hosts have gone winless in the same span. A Poisson model gives Viktoriya Sumy a 64.3% win probability, projecting a 0-1 scoreline.

Probiy Horodenka have not won in their last five, with three losses and two draws, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match. In their last three home games they have two draws and one defeat, scoring one goal per game on average.

Viktoriya Sumy are unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and one draw, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. Their last three away matches produced two wins and a draw, with a strong defensive record of 0.33 goals conceded per game.

There are no prior meetings between these sides on record. The sample is too small to provide any head-to-head indication.

Probiy Horodenka's recent home run includes two draws and a loss, with an average of two goals conceded. Viktoriya Sumy's away form is notably tighter defensively, conceding 0.33 goals per game across their last three road fixtures.

Both teams have had a similar rest period, with Probiy last playing 16 days ago and Viktoriya 15 days ago. League table data and head-to-head history are unavailable, which adds some uncertainty to the projection.

The model rates Viktoriya Sumy as clear favorites at 64.3%, with a draw at 28.4% and a home win at 7.3%. The projected score is 0-1, and the most likely exact scorelines are 0-1 (27.1%), 0-0 (20.6%), and 0-2 (17.9%). Expected total goals sit at about 1.58, with only a 17% chance both teams score. The winning-margin distribution is split between a one-goal away win (32.1%) and an away win by two or more (32.2%).

The data points to a Viktoriya Sumy away win, supported by their unbeaten run and the model's 64.3% probability. The lack of table context and head-to-head meetings means the home side's true level is uncertain. A draw is the most plausible alternative at 28.4%, but the balance of evidence strongly favors the visitors.