Preußen Münster1-2Karlsruhe

Opening the DFB-Pokal campaign, Preußen Münster host Karlsruhe at Preußenstadion. No league table data is available for either side, so the focus falls on recent form and head-to-head. The model gives the home side a 62% win probability, a clear projection despite a head-to-head record that has seen Münster fail to beat Karlsruhe in four meetings.

Preußen Münster's last 20 home matches show 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses, a 20% win rate. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per home game. Their most recent five matches produced two draws, two losses and one win, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Karlsruhe's last 20 away matches show 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses, a 15% win rate, with 1.05 goals scored and 2 conceded on average. Their latest five outings are identical to Münster's: DWLLD, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.6 conceded.

Four meetings are on record, with Karlsruhe winning two and drawing two. Münster have scored 4 goals and conceded 7 across those games. Three of the four meetings finished with two or fewer total goals; the exception was a 3-2 Karlsruhe win in August 2025.

Münster's home numbers are modest, but Karlsruhe's away numbers are clearly weaker, with the visitors conceding an average of two goals per game on the road. The model projects 2.08 home goals and 1.01 away goals, a gap that highlights the importance of venue.

Rest is equal, with both teams coming off 15 August outings and six days to recover. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight to the model's projection, but four meetings is a limited sample. Medium model confidence further tempers the forecast.

The model's most likely outcome is a Preußen Münster win, rated at 62%, against a 20.5% draw and 17.5% Karlsruhe win. It projects a 2-1 scoreline, with total goals expected around 3.09. The probability of at least two goals is 81.4%, and the chance each side scores at least once is 55.7%. The winning-margin distribution favors a home win by two or more goals at 38.4%, with a one-goal home win at 23.6%.

The data points to a home win, with Münster's stronger home projection outweighing Karlsruhe's historical edge. The medium confidence and the tendency for head-to-head meetings to produce few goals suggest a narrow result is plausible. If Karlsruhe's defensive performance improves on its away average, or Münster's recent scoring form continues to dip, an upset becomes more likely.