Portland Thorns1-0Denver Summit

Portland Thorns host Denver Summit at Providence Park in Round 18 of the NWSL season. The model gives the home side a 64.6% chance of victory and projects a 1-0 win. Denver have no wins from their last two away games, while Portland have taken four points from their two home matches.

Portland's last five results read WWLDL, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per match. At home they have been tighter, taking one win and one draw from two games while conceding 1.5 per match. Their home win rate of 50% is slightly above their recent overall win rate of 40%.

Denver's last five results are DWLDL, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. On the road they have shown a slightly weaker profile: no wins from two away games, with 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Their away win rate is 0%.

The two sides have met once on record, with Denver winning 2-1 at home on 18 July 2026. That single sample is too small to carry predictive weight, but it does mean Portland have yet to take a point from this fixture.

At home, Portland's two games produced a win and a draw, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Away from home, Denver are winless in two, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 per match. These splits are consistent with the model's overall assessment.

The head-to-head sample is minimal, and no league table data is available to anchor either team's position. Portland have had 7 days of rest since their last match, while Denver have had 8. The model rates its confidence as medium, reflecting the limited data.

The model projects Portland to win with 64.6% probability, against 24.2% for a draw and 11.2% for Denver. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 (19.8%), and the expected total is about 2.09 goals. The margin distribution is heavily home-weighted: 36% for a win by two or more and 28.6% for a one-goal win, with a 31.1% chance that both teams score.

The numbers point to a home win, with Portland's stronger home form and Denver's road struggles aligning with the model. The 24.2% draw probability, however, means a share of the points is a live outcome, and a single-goal margin is the most common path to victory. The model's medium confidence suggests treating the projection as a tendency rather than a certainty.