Portland Fire98-112Indiana Fever

Portland Fire host Indiana Fever at the Moda Center in a WNBA matchup that follows immediately on the heels of a meeting between the two teams. Indiana won that most recent contest 112-98, and the model carrying this preview makes Indiana a heavy favorite again, with a 75.4% win probability. Both sides enter on zero days' rest, having played on the same date.

Portland come in having lost four consecutive games, while Indiana have won five in a row. The away team's recent scoring numbers are particularly striking, with an average of 111.6 points across their last five outings. The projected score of 95-103 reflects Indiana's edge, though the margin is not enormous.

Portland's home record over their last 15 games at the Moda Center is 6 wins and 9 losses, a 40% win rate. They average 84.8 points scored and 89.87 points conceded at home. In their last five games overall, the run is LLLLW, with an average of 89.2 scored and 93.6 conceded. The lone win in that stretch came at the start of the sequence, before four straight losses.

Indiana's road record over their last 20 away games is 12 wins and 8 losses, a 60% win rate. They average 90 points scored and 86.85 conceded on the road. Their recent form is a perfect five wins from five, with an average of 111.6 points scored and 95.2 conceded. That recent scoring rate is well above their road average, indicating a high-powered stretch.

The head-to-head record shows three meetings, with Portland winning one and Indiana winning two. Indiana have outscored Portland 286-271 across those games, an average of about 95.3 to 90.3 per meeting. The full results: Indiana won at home 90-73 on 2026-05-20, Portland won at home 100-84 on 2026-05-31, and Indiana won at Portland 112-98 on 2026-08-01. The combined score in each meeting was at least 163 points, so the series has been consistently high-scoring. With only three meetings on record, the sample is small, but the results consistently favored Indiana in two of three and featured high totals.

Portland's home numbers are slightly more conservative than their recent overall form: they score 84.8 at home versus 89.2 across the last five, and concede 89.87 at home versus 93.6 across the last five. Indiana's road numbers are also lower than their recent outburst, with 90 points scored away compared with 111.6 in the last five. The venue splits suggest Portland have been tighter at home, but their home win rate of 40% remains below Indiana's away win rate of 60%. The away team's superior road record and Portland's sub-.500 home mark align with the model's favoritism toward Indiana.

The most prominent factor in this fixture is the congested schedule: both teams are playing on zero days' rest. That applies equally, but it is worth noting that Indiana won the earlier meeting on the same date. There is no league-table record provided for either team, so the analysis rests on recent form and home/away splits. The three head-to-head meetings offer a small but relevant sample, and Indiana have won two of them. Neither side has the benefit of a longer break, so scheduling is not a differentiator.

The model output, generated from a normal-distribution margin model, gives Indiana a 75.4% win probability and Portland 24.6%, with medium confidence. The projected score is 95 for Portland and 103 for Indiana, a margin of 7.9 points in Indiana's favor. The most likely outcome per the model is an Indiana win; no other result is flagged as equally likely. The projected total of about 198 points is close to the 185.67 average combined score in the three head-to-head meetings, suggesting another high-scoring game. The medium confidence level reflects some uncertainty, but the direction of the model is consistent.

The data points to an Indiana victory. Their away record is strong, their recent form is flawless, and they have won two of the three recorded meetings, including the most recent one. The model assigns them a three-in-four chance of winning, and Indiana's expected margin is just under eight points. For Portland, the path would require a reversal of a four-game losing streak and an offensive performance from the model's projected 95 points. That is possible within the 24.6% probability, but the numbers do not make it leading. The congested schedule affects both sides, so it does little to close the gap. Indiana enter as the clear favorite, and the available evidence supports that status.