Pisa1-1Empoli

Pisa and Empoli open their 2026-2027 Coppa Italia campaigns at the Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Both sides have been idle since May, making this a true season opener for each club.

The key numbers come from the teams' respective home and away splits over the last 20 matches. Pisa have won just 15% of their home games in that sample, while Empoli have won 25% of their away games. The model accordingly gives Empoli a 39.6% win probability, a draw 33.4%, and Pisa 27.1%.

Pisa's home record over the last 20 matches shows 3 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, with an average of 0.55 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game. Their recent form is a five-match losing streak, during which they have averaged 0.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded.

That stretch ended on 2026-05-23, and the 86-day gap since then is the team's offseason break. No league table position is available for Pisa in this data, so the home split and recent run are the only indicators here.

Empoli's away record over the last 20 matches is 5 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, a 25% win rate. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game.

In their last five matches overall, the sequence is DWLDL — one win, two draws, and two losses — with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their last match was on 2026-05-08, 101 days before this fixture.

Pisa and Empoli have no prior meetings recorded in this data set. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the fixture is essentially a first meeting for the purposes of this analysis. The record cannot provide any steer, so the preview relies solely on the teams' recent form and model output.

The respective home and away splits are the most relevant comparison for this fixture. Pisa's home win rate of 15% compares unfavorably with Empoli's away win rate of 25%, and Empoli score more than twice as many goals on the road (1.1 per game) than Pisa manage at home (0.55).

Defensively, Pisa concede 1.35 per home game, which is better than Empoli's 1.7 away concession rate. The model's expected goals reflect this push-and-pull: Pisa are projected at 0.75, Empoli at 0.98.

This is the first competitive match of the season for both teams. Pisa have had 86 days off since their last match, Empoli 101 days. The long break makes all form data from last season less reliable as a guide, and it is the clearest situational factor in this fixture.

There is also no head-to-head record to serve as a reference point, and no league table context is available. The model's medium confidence level reflects these gaps in the data.

The model's most likely outcome is an Empoli win, at 39.6%, with the draw at 33.4% and Pisa at 27.1%. The projected score is 0-0, based on expected goals of 0.75 for Pisa and 0.98 for Empoli. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 17.7%, followed by 0-1 at 17.3% and 1-0 at 13.3%.

Total goals are projected at about 1.73, with a 51.6% chance of two or more and a 25.1% chance of three or more. The model gives each side a 33% chance of scoring at least once, which points to a tight, low-scoring contest.

Winning-margin probabilities show a draw as the most common single result at 33.4%. When one team does win, Empoli by one goal is the next most likely margin at 24.5%, and Empoli by two or more sits at 15%. Pisa by one is 18.9%, and Pisa by two or more is 8.2%.

The data supports an Empoli victory as the single most likely outcome, but only narrowly. Their away record is stronger than Pisa's home record, and the model gives them the higher win probability. The expected goals are close, and the most likely scoreline is a goalless draw.

The verdict relies on the assumption that last season's home and away forms carry some weight into this opener. That assumption is fragile given the 86- and 101-day breaks, and the absence of any head-to-head record leaves the model without a historical baseline. If the long layoff disproportionately affects either side, or if Pisa's home form is not representative, the outcome could differ.