Pérez ZeledónvsAlajuelense

Round six of the Costa Rican Liga FPD brings Pérez Zeledón and Alajuelense together at Estadio Municipal Pérez Zeledón. The Poisson model makes a draw the single most likely outcome at 49.1%, with a projected 0-0 scoreline despite Alajuelense's stronger recent scoring numbers.

Pérez Zeledón have won one and lost one of two home matches, averaging 0.5 goals scored and conceded. Their last five league games show one win, one draw, and three losses, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match.

Alajuelense have won three of their last five matches, losing the other two, while averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Away from home, they have two wins, one draw, and one loss in four games, scoring 1.75 and conceding 0.75 per match on average.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record, so head-to-head data provides no basis for prediction.

Pérez Zeledón's two home games produced a win and a loss, with identical 0.5 goals scored and conceded. Alajuelense's four away games have been more productive, with 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.

The home side have had eight days since their last match, while Alajuelense operate on a three-day turnaround and are flagged for a congested schedule. Neither side's league table position is available in the data, adding some uncertainty to the overall picture.

The model gives a draw a 49.1% probability, followed by an away win at 35% and a home win at 15.8%. Expected goals are 0.3 for Pérez Zeledón and 0.58 for Alajuelense, projecting a combined total of roughly 0.88 goals; the chance of two or more goals is 21.9%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-0 at 41.6%, with 0-1 at 24% and 1-0 at 12.5% next. On the winning-margin scale, a draw leads at 49.1%, while an away win by one goal is the most probable non-draw margin at 26.1%.

The data points to a low-scoring, closely matched fixture with a draw as the most probable result. That projection would be undermined if Alajuelense's away scoring proves more decisive than the model expects, making a single-goal away win the standout alternative.