Pelikan Łowicz1-1Troszyn

This is a fifth-round Polish III liga Group I fixture, and the first competitive meeting between Pelikan Łowicz and Troszyn on record. The model strongly favors the hosts, giving them an 82.6% win probability and projecting a 3-1 scoreline. Both sides played four days ago and are on a short turnaround.

Pelikan Łowicz are unbeaten in their last three home matches, winning all three and averaging 2.33 goals scored against 1.33 conceded. Over their last five matches in all runs, they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with the most recent result a defeat.

Troszyn have won one of their last three away games, losing two, with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 2 conceded. Their last five overall show four losses and a 1.2 goals-per-game scoring average, conceding 2.8 per game; the most recent match ended in a loss.

There are no prior meetings between these sides on record, so the head-to-head sample is too small to lean on. Historical results offer no guidance for this preview.

Pelikan Łowicz's home sample is perfect: three wins from three, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.33 to 1.33 per game. Troszyn's away form is the opposite, with one win and two losses in three games and a negative goal average (1.33 scored, 2 conceded). The gap between the two sides' venue-specific numbers aligns with the model's heavy home lean.

Both teams are playing their second match in four days, a short turnaround flagged by the model. Neither side's league position is included in the data, limiting context from the wider season. With no head-to-head record, the projections rest entirely on recent form and venue splits.

The model gives Pelikan Łowicz an 82.6% chance of winning, compared with 10% for a draw and 7.4% for an away win, at medium confidence. It projects a 3-1 scoreline, with 3-1, 4-1, and 3-0 as the most likely exact scores. The total-goals projection is about 4.89, with a 95.5% probability of at least two goals and a 71.5% chance of four or more. The model also expects a decisive margin, putting 67.1% on a home win by two or more goals and only 2.5% on an away win by two or more.

The available data points to a home win for Pelikan Łowicz, backed by their perfect home record and a strong model projection. The main unknowns are the lack of any head-to-head meetings and the absence of league-table context, both of which the model cannot capture. A tighter match than the projection suggests, or an away performance well above Troszyn's recent level, would be the most likely ways this outlook misses.