Pärnu U21 Vaprus2-2Viljandi Tulevik

Round 24 of the Estonian Esiliiga B brings Pärnu U21 Vaprus and Viljandi Tulevik together at Pärnu Rannastaadion. The two sides have never met on record, so this fixture carries no historical baggage. The model, however, sees a clear gap: it gives the home side an 80.5% win probability and projects a 4-1 scoreline.

Both teams come into the match on poor runs. Pärnu U21 Vaprus have lost four of their last five, while Viljandi Tulevik have lost three of five and are playing on a short turnaround. The combination of home advantage, away-side congestion, and the model's output points heavily in one direction.

Pärnu U21 Vaprus are without a win in their last five matches, their most recent form reading LDLLL. Over that stretch they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.8 conceded, suggesting defensive frailty as much as attacking output.

Their only home match on record ended in a 2-3 defeat, a result that fits the pattern of scoring but also conceding. With no league table data available, this recent form and the single home result are the only indicators we have for the home side.

Viljandi Tulevik's last five matches read LLDDL, meaning they have lost three and drawn two. Their scoring output is low, averaging 0.6 goals per game, while conceding an average of 2.

In their two away matches on record, they have lost both, scoring once and conceding three per game on average. That away sample is small but consistent with a team that struggles to keep opposition off the scoreboard.

There are no prior meetings between Pärnu U21 Vaprus and Viljandi Tulevik on record. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the fixture is a fresh start for both sides.

The absence of past results means any assessment of this match must rely entirely on recent form and the model's projections.

The match is played at Pärnu Rannastaadion, the home ground of Pärnu U21 Vaprus. The home side's only home match on record produced a 2-3 loss, with two goals scored and three conceded.

For Viljandi Tulevik, the away record shows two defeats in two matches, with one goal scored and three conceded per game. Both teams' home and away splits are based on very small samples, so they should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.

Rest and scheduling are the clearest factors in the data. Pärnu U21 Vaprus had five days between matches, while Viljandi Tulevik have had four, and the away side is flagged as being on a short turnaround. That congestion may affect their performance.

Neither team has league table data on record, so their exact league positions are unknown. The model's confidence is listed as medium, and both sides' recent form is poor. The away side's scoring average of 0.6 per game in their last five is particularly low, while the home side have been conceding nearly three per game.

The model's win probabilities are 80.5% for a home win, 9.5% for a draw, and 10% for an away win. That makes a home victory the clear most likely outcome. The projected score is 4-1, with expected goals of 4.78 for the home side and 1.98 for the away side.

The model also projects a high-scoring match, with about 6.76 total goals. The probability of at least two goals is 99%, at least three 96.2%, at least four 89.9%, and both teams scoring at least once 85.4%. In terms of margin, a home win by two or more goals carries 67.1% probability, a home win by one goal 13.4%, a draw 9.5%, an away win by one 5.6%, and an away win by two or more 4.5%.

The most likely exact scorelines are 4-1 (5.3%), 4-2 (5.2%), and 5-1 (5.1%). These are individual scores, not results; the overall result probability for a home win is what dominates the model.

The data points strongly toward a home victory. The model gives Pärnu U21 Vaprus an 80.5% win probability and projects a multi-goal margin, while Viljandi Tulevik's recent away form and short turnaround offer little support for an upset.

However, the model's confidence is medium, and the samples for both teams' home and away splits are very small. If the home side's defensive issues — they have conceded 2.8 per game over their last five — prove more pronounced than the model expects, the margin could be narrower than projected. But the direction of the outcome is clear in the numbers.