Parma0-2Sampdoria

Parma welcome Sampdoria to the Stadio Ennio Tardini for a preseason friendly. With no league table data available for either side, the outlook rests on recent form and home/away splits. The model makes Parma the most likely winner at 42.3%, yet projects a goalless scoreline at 0-0.

Parma last played on 2026-05-24, a 77-day gap that marks this as their season opener. Sampdoria, meanwhile, are 17 days removed from their last match. Neither side enters with standout scoring numbers, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.

Parma's last 20 home matches show 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, a 25% win rate. They have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game at the Tardini.

Their most recent five matches overall read WLLLW, with the same scoring average of 0.8 goals per game and 1.2 conceded. The last of those was on 2026-05-24, and the long layoff means they begin afresh here.

Sampdoria's away record over their last 20 matches is 2 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, a 10% win rate. They have averaged 0.65 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per away game.

Their last five matches overall are DLWDL, with only 0.2 goals scored per game and 0.8 conceded. They last played on 2026-07-23, giving them a 17-day break before this friendly.

No prior meetings between Parma and Sampdoria are on record. The head-to-head sample is therefore empty and cannot inform expectations for this match.

This fixture will mark the first recorded contest between the two sides.

Parma's home form is mixed: 5 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 at the Tardini, with a 25% win rate. They score 0.8 per home game and concede 1.25.

Sampdoria's away form is significantly weaker, with only 2 wins in their last 20 and a 10% win rate. Their away scoring average of 0.65 is below Parma's home mark, and they concede 1.4 per game. The gap between these splits leans toward Parma in this setting.

The rest differential is the clearest factor. Parma have not played in 77 days and are opening their season, while Sampdoria played 17 days ago. This is a preseason friendly, so squad rotation and match sharpness are inherently uncertain.

Sampdoria's recent scoring has been minimal, averaging just 0.2 goals per game over their last five matches. Parma's output has been modest as well, and with no head-to-head history to draw on, the model's medium confidence reflects the limited data.

The Poisson model gives Parma a 42.3% win probability, a 36.7% draw probability, and a 21% chance for Sampdoria. Expected goals are 0.9 for the home side and 0.54 for the away side, producing a projected 0-0 scoreline.

The most likely exact scoreline is 0-0 at 23.7%, followed by 1-0 at 21.3% and 0-1 at 12.8%. Although the most probable individual score is a draw, the aggregated result probabilities make a Parma win the most likely outcome at 42.3%.

The data points to a low-scoring match in which Parma are favored, both by their superior home record and by Sampdoria's poor away form. The goalless draw is the single most likely scoreline, but the model still prefers a narrow home victory.

The long break for Parma injects real uncertainty, as does the unusual nature of a preseason friendly. If Parma's home solidity holds and Sampdoria's away scoring struggles continue, a 1-0 outcome becomes the most plausible result; otherwise, a goalless draw is the main alternative.