Pakhtakor0-0Surkhon Termez

Round 18 of the Uzbekistan Super League sees Pakhtakor host Surkhon Termez at Paxtakor stadioni, with no league-table data on record for either side. Recent form and the model's projections therefore carry the analysis. Pakhtakor have won three of their last five, while Surkhon have lost four of five; the model gives the hosts a 49.5% win probability.

Pakhtakor are unbeaten across their last five matches, with three wins and two draws, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. At home in their last three fixtures they have two wins and a draw, scoring 2.33 goals per game while conceding one.

Surkhon Termez's last five matches read LLWLL, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Across their last two away fixtures they have one win and one loss, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record, leaving no head-to-head history to inform this preview.

Pakhtakor's home scoring rate is elevated compared to their overall recent numbers: 2.33 goals scored at home versus 1.6 overall, though they also concede more at home (1.0 versus 0.6). Surkhon Termez's away numbers are more restrained at 0.5 goals for and against across their last two road games.

Rest days differ modestly: Pakhtakor have five days since their last match, Surkhon Termez eight. With no league-table context and no head-to-head record, the model's medium confidence is a reminder that these projections carry uncertainty.

The model's result probabilities are 49.5% for a home win, 37.8% for a draw, and 12.8% for an away win. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-0 (28.4%), just ahead of 1-0 (26.4%), and expected goals are 0.93 to 0.33, for a combined 1.26. The model projects a 35.9% chance of two or more total goals and 13.4% of three or more. The win-margin distribution shows a draw as the single most common margin (37.8%), with a one-goal home win close behind (30.7%).

The data points to a tight, low-scoring match in which Pakhtakor's recent form gives them the most likely path to a narrow win, though the model does not make them overwhelming favorites. If Surkhon Termez's recent away defensive numbers hold, a goalless draw is a realistic alternative; the outcome likely depends on whether the home side can convert a modest edge in expected goals into a narrow advantage.