Östersund0-0Ljungskile

Östersund host Ljungskile in round 20 of the Swedish Superettan. The home side have won all three of their most recent home matches without conceding, while Ljungskile are unbeaten in their last two away games. The model gives Östersund a 60.1% win probability.

Östersund's last five matches read WDWWD, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. At home, they have three wins from three in the most recent sample, scoring 1.33 and conceding zero. They come in on a short four-day turnaround.

Ljungskile's last five are WLLDW, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Away from home they have one win and one draw from their last two, with 1.5 scored and 1 conceded per game. They have had one additional day of rest.

There are no prior meetings between these sides on record. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the sample is too small to support any tendency either way.

Östersund's home defensive record is the standout split: three games, no goals conceded. Ljungskile's away sample is just two matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded. The home side's clean-sheet run shapes the projection.

Östersund face a congested schedule with four days between matches, one fewer than Ljungskile. No league table data is available for either side, so their overall standing cannot be assessed here. The limited away sample for Ljungskile adds uncertainty to the model's output.

The model projects a 1-0 home win, with expected goals of 1.06 to 0.15. Östersund's win probability is 60.1%, the draw 34.7%, and an away win 5.2%. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (31.6%) and 0-0 (29.7%). Total goals are expected around 1.21, with a 34.2% chance of two or more; both teams scoring is just 9.1%. Margins are projected tight: a one-goal home win at 34.2% and a draw at 34.7%.

The data points to a low-scoring home victory, most plausibly by a single goal, with the draw as the main alternative at 34.7%. The medium confidence rating reflects the close aggregate margin despite the lopsided win probability. A different result would require Ljungskile to score against a team that has not conceded at home in three matches.