Orange County SC1-5FC Tulsa

This USL Championship fixture brings together two sides with no prior meetings on record. The model gives the draw the highest probability at 42.1%, with a projected scoreline of 0-0. Both teams arrive on a full week of rest, last playing on 2026-08-16.

Orange County SC have won only one of their last four home matches, averaging 1 scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their recent five-match run is L-L-W-W-L, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 2 conceded. The sample is small but suggests defensive frailty at home.

FC Tulsa have split their last two away fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Their broader five-match form reads L-L-W-W-D, with the same scoring and conceding averages. The away numbers point to a tight, low-scoring profile.

There are no prior meetings between these clubs on record. The absence of historical data means the head-to-head offers no predictive anchor, leaving the model output as the primary reference point.

Orange County's home form diverges from their overall figures, with a notably higher conceded average. FC Tulsa's away matches have been particularly subdued, with both teams combining for just one goal across their last two trips. These splits reinforce the expectation of a low-event contest.

Both sides have had seven days of rest since their last outings, so schedule congestion is not a factor. The lack of any prior meetings introduces genuine uncertainty, and the small home and away samples make any strong projection fragile.

The Poisson model assigns the draw a 42.1% probability, the most likely outcome, while the away win is close at 40% and the home win 17.9%. It projects a 0-0 scoreline, with about 1.14 total goals expected and a 31.6% chance of two or more. Winning margins are tight: a one-goal away win is 27.4%, a one-goal home win 14.7%, and a draw 42.1%. Confidence is medium.

The data collectively points toward a low-scoring, evenly matched game, with the draw the most probable result. The projected 0-0 reflects the limited attacking output on both sides. However, the absent head-to-head record and small splits mean an away win is nearly as plausible, and a decisive margin is unlikely.