Olympia YerevanvsAraks Ararat

Olympia Yerevan and Araks Ararat meet for the first time on record in Round 5 of the Armenian First League. The Poisson model gives the hosts an 82.3% win probability and projects a 1-0 final scoreline.

Olympia Yerevan have no league table data on record but have won both home matches this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0 per game. Their last five matches read D-W-W-D-W, averaging 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Araks Ararat also have no league table data on record. In their only away match they drew 1-1, and their last four games show W-D-W-L with an average of 2 scored and 2 conceded.

There are no prior meetings on record, so the head-to-head offers no basis for prediction.

Olympia Yerevan have won both home games, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0 per game, while Araks Ararat's only away match ended 1-1. That contrast is reflected in the model, which gives the visitors a 2.2% win probability.

Both sides come in on eight days of rest, so neither holds a scheduling advantage. The sample sizes are small, and with no head-to-head history the model leans heavily on recent home form.

The model projects 1-0 as the most likely scoreline, with expected goals of 1.99 to 0.15. A home win by two or more goals carries a 55.3% probability, and a one-goal home win sits at 27.1%. Total goals are projected at about 2.14, with a 63.1% chance of at least two goals. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a comfortable Olympia Yerevan win, with the model rating them as overwhelming favorites. That projection would be undermined if the home side's early form proves unrepresentative, given the very small sample of matches.