Olimpia Elbląg0-2Widzew Łódź II

Round 4 of the Polish III liga Group I takes Olimpia Elbląg to their home ground to face Widzew Łódź II. There is no league table data available for either side, so the focus falls on recent form, home and away splits, and a goal model that strongly favors the hosts.

The model gives Olimpia Elbląg an 83.7% win probability, with the most likely outcome a home victory. It projects a 2-0 scoreline, backed by a home expected-goals figure of 2.99 against 0.66 for the visitors. These two teams have never met before, leaving the model with no head-to-head history to incorporate.

Olimpia Elbląg come into this match off a run of five games that produced two wins, a draw, and two losses, with the most recent form string reading WWLDD. Across those five matches they averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, a slightly positive profile.

At home, their last two outings produced one win and one loss, while scoring at a much higher clip of 2.5 goals per game and conceding 2.0. The sample is small, but it suggests the home venue has amplified their attacking output in the early part of the season.

Widzew Łódź II have struggled on their travels. In their last two away matches they lost both, averaging just 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, with a 0% win rate.

Their overall recent form across five games, reading DLWLL, shows a side that has taken four points from a possible fifteen, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The away numbers are notably worse on the attacking end, which aligns with the model's low projection for the visitors.

There are no prior meetings between Olimpia Elbląg and Widzew Łódź II on record. This is a fixture with no historical baseline, so any assessment rests entirely on each side's current form and the model's projections.

With no head-to-head data, the model has no past results to weigh, meaning the probabilities are generated purely from the recent performances and structural factors available for each team.

Olimpia Elbląg's home record over their last two matches at this venue shows a split of one win and one loss, with an average of 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Their overall recent five-match average is 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, so the home numbers are higher in both directions.

Widzew Łódź II's away form is more clearly negative: two losses, 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, compared to their overall averages of 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded. The venue splits point to a home side that presses more offensively, and an away side that has not yet found its footing on the road.

Both teams are playing on a short turnaround of four days since their last match on 2026-08-15, a fixture flagged as congested. Neither side has had a full week to prepare, which could affect the pacing of the game, though the model does not explicitly account for rest.

The absence of league table data for both sides limits the context available; there is no way to compare their standings or points totals. Additionally, with no previous head-to-head meetings, the only information on which to base a prediction is the recent form and the model's output.

The model is confident in a home win, assigning an 83.7% probability to Olimpia Elbląg, compared to 10.9% for a draw and 5.3% for an away win. The projected scoreline is 2-0, with expected goals of 2.99 for the home side and 0.66 for the visitors.

The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0 at 11.7%, narrowly ahead of 3-0 at 11.6% and 4-0 at 8.7%. Total goals are projected at 3.65 for the match, with an 87.9% chance of at least two goals, 70.5% of at least three, and 49.3% of at least four. The probability that both teams score at least once is 45.8%.

From the home side's perspective, the winning margin distribution shows a 65.2% chance of winning by two or more goals, an 18.5% chance of winning by exactly one, and a 10.9% probability of a draw. An away victory by one goal is rated at 4.1%, and by two or more at just 1.3%. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the limited data available.

The data points strongly toward a home victory for Olimpia Elbląg, with the model giving them a high win probability and a projected multi-goal margin. Their recent home scoring output is robust, and Widzew Łódź II's away form has been poor.

The most plausible path to an upset would be for the away side to tighten their defensive record, which has been shaky on the road. However, with no history between these teams and a medium confidence level, the model leaves room for a closer contest than the probabilities suggest. If the home side's finishing falls below expectation or the visitors raise their scoring output, the margin could shrink.