Nürnberg II3-1Wacker Burghausen

This Regionalliga Bayern round 5 fixture pits a struggling Nürnberg II side against Wacker Burghausen, and the model is emphatic: an 82% away win probability with a projected 0-2 scoreline. The home side's recent form is poor, while Burghausen's away numbers are strong, making this a challenging ask for Nürnberg II.

Nürnberg II have won only one of their last three home games, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at the Max-Morlock-Platz. Their last five matches overall read DLLLW, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. No league table data is available to place this in a wider context.

Wacker Burghausen are unbeaten in their last two away games, with one win and one draw, scoring an average of three goals per trip. Their last five matches across all venues form LDWWD, averaging two goals scored and one conceded.

The two clubs have no prior meetings on record, so the head-to-head sample is too small to offer any comparative insight. This fixture is effectively a clean slate.

Nürnberg II's home win rate over their last three games is 33.3%, and their home scoring average of 0.67 goals is below their recent overall average. Burghausen, in contrast, average three goals away from home, comfortably above their overall recent average of two, suggesting the venue advantage may be limited for the hosts.

Both sides have had seven days of rest since their last match on 2026-08-14, so neither holds a rest advantage. There is no league table data available to assess schedule strength or overall positioning. The model's confidence is medium, and the away side's strong projection is consistent with their recent scoring output.

The Poisson model gives Wacker Burghausen an 82% chance of winning, with a projected score of 0-2. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-2 at 14.7%, followed by 0-3 at 12.9% and 0-1 at 11.2%. Total goals are projected at about 3.16, with an 82.3% probability of at least two goals and a 61.1% probability of at least three. There is a 38.3% chance both teams find the net.

The data points firmly to an away victory, with a 61% probability of Burghausen winning by two or more goals. A one-goal away win (21%) and a draw (12.6%) are the next plausible outcomes, though both rely on Nürnberg II holding the visitors closer than the model expects. For that to happen, the hosts would need to improve on a home scoring average that has dipped below a goal per game.