Nottingham Forest2-1Bayer Leverkusen

This pre-season friendly brings together Nottingham Forest and Bayer Leverkusen at the City Ground, with the home side opening their 2026 campaign after an 80-day break. The visitors have played more recently, with a match on 2026-07-29 giving them a 14-day gap since their last outing.

The model views the fixture as closely matched, giving Bayer Leverkusen a 37.5% win probability, Nottingham Forest 34.1%, and the draw 28.3%. The projected scoreline of 1-1 captures the narrow expected-goal gap, with the visitors holding a slim edge in win probability.

Nottingham Forest's recent results show two wins, two draws and a defeat in their last five matches, with an average of 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Those numbers come from a run that ended on 2026-05-24, after which the squad has been idle for 80 days.

At the City Ground over their last 20 home matches, Forest have won 4, drawn 8 and lost 8, a 20% win rate. They have averaged one goal scored and 1.2 conceded per home match, indicating a modest scoring output and a defense that concedes slightly more than they score.

Bayer Leverkusen's last five matches produced three wins, one draw and one defeat, also averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their most recent outing was on 2026-07-29, giving them a 14-day turnaround before this fixture.

Away from home over a larger sample of their last 20 matches, Leverkusen have won 10, drawn 3 and lost 7, a 50% win rate. Their away scoring average is 1.5 goals per game, while they concede an average of 1.4 goals per game.

There are no prior meetings between Nottingham Forest and Bayer Leverkusen on record. With no head-to-head history to examine, the sample is effectively empty, so this fixture cannot be assessed through past encounters.

The preview therefore relies entirely on each side's recent form and the model's projections, with no historical pattern to weight one side over the other.

The match is at the City Ground, where Nottingham Forest's last 20 home matches have produced 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 defeats. Forest have scored at an average of one goal per match there while conceding 1.2, giving them a 20% home win rate.

Bayer Leverkusen's last 20 away matches, meanwhile, show 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats, a 50% away win rate, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The contrast in home and away results is notable.

The most significant scheduling factor is Nottingham Forest's 80-day gap since their last match on 2026-05-24, which makes this their season opener. That long break introduces additional uncertainty around their preparation, and early-season form can be unpredictable. Bayer Leverkusen, by contrast, have played as recently as 2026-07-29, a 14-day turnaround, giving them a more recent reference point.

The model's medium confidence reflects both the narrow margins in the projections and the absence of any head-to-head record, leaving the outcome more open than a typical fixture with a richer data history.

According to the Poisson model, Bayer Leverkusen are the most likely winner at 37.5%, with Nottingham Forest at 34.1% and the draw at 28.3%. The most likely individual scoreline is 1-1 (13.2%), with 0-1 (11.9%) and 1-0 (11.2%) close behind. The expected goals of 1.12 for Forest and 1.19 for Leverkusen feed a projected score of 1-1.

The model projects roughly 2.3 total goals. There is a 67% chance of at least two goals being scored, a 40.4% chance of at least three, and a 20.1% chance of at least four. The probability that both sides score at least once is 46.7%. On winning margins, the draw is the single largest outcome at 28.3%, while one-goal victories are close: 20.4% for Forest by one and 21.7% for Leverkusen by one. Wins by two or more goals are less likely, at 13.7% for the home side and 15.9% for the away side.

The data points to a tight, low-scoring encounter with a narrow advantage for Bayer Leverkusen. Their away record over the last 20 matches is markedly stronger than Forest's home record over the same span, and they come in with more recent playing time. Nottingham Forest's 80-day break adds a layer of unpredictability to any projection.

The model's most likely outcome is a Leverkusen win, but the projected 1-1 scoreline and the close probabilities make a draw nearly as plausible, and a Forest win would fit within the margins. The main uncertainty is the pre-season context itself, where results may not track regular-season form closely.