Nosta Novotroitsk1-1Sokol Saratov

This Russia Cup fixture sees Nosta Novotroitsk host Sokol Saratov with no prior meetings between the sides. The model gives the home side a 79.8% win probability and projects a 2-0 scoreline. Both teams arrive on short rest, with Nosta having had three days since their last match and Sokol four.

Nosta's last two home matches brought one win and one draw, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Their broader recent run of five games shows three wins, one draw and one loss, with an average of 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Last match was on 2026-08-23, three days before this fixture.

Sokol have not won any of their last three away matches, recording one draw and two losses while averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Over their last five games overall they have one win, two draws and two losses, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded. They last played on 2026-08-22, four days ahead of this match.

There are no prior meetings on record between Nosta Novotroitsk and Sokol Saratov. The head-to-head sample is therefore too small to draw any conclusions.

Nosta's scoring rate at home (2.0 per game) is slightly above their recent overall average (1.8), while their home conceded rate (1.5) is below the 2.2 they have allowed recently. Sokol's away scoring dips to 0.67 per game from their overall recent average of 1.2, and they concede 1.67 away compared to 1.6 overall.

Both sides face congested schedules, with Nosta on three days' rest and Sokol on four. The absence of any head-to-head history adds uncertainty, and the model's medium confidence rating reflects that. Nosta's home advantage and Sokol's poor away form are the main factors shaping the projection.

The model assigns Nosta a 79.8% win probability, with a draw at 13.4% and a Sokol win at 6.8%. The projected scoreline is 2-0, and the most likely exact scores are 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0. Total goals are projected at about 3.32, with an 84.4% chance of at least two goals and a 44.9% chance both sides score. The model's largest margin probability is a home win by two or more goals at 58.9%.

The data points to a comfortable home victory, with Nosta's stronger home record and Sokol's winless away run underpinning the projection. The model's highest margin probability is a home win by two or more goals, though the small home sample and lack of head-to-head meetings keep some uncertainty alive. If Sokol's away scoring improves on recent levels, the margin could narrow.