Newcastle United1-3Everton

Newcastle United host Everton at St James' Park in a pre-season friendly on August 12. With no league table data available for either side, this preview leans on recent form and home/away splits to set the scene.

Newcastle come into the match with a home record that shows 12 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats in their last 20 at St James' Park, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Everton's away form over the same sample is less imposing: 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with an average of 1.05 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.

The model gives Newcastle a 61.3% win probability, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. That projection is built on a strong home profile meeting a modest away one, though the medium confidence indicates there is plenty of room for a different outcome.

Newcastle's last 20 home matches paint a picture of a side that generally controls games at St James' Park. They have won 60% of those fixtures, scoring 2.1 goals per game while conceding 1.4.

The most recent five results, ordered from newest to oldest, read L-L-W-D-W. In that stretch they have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, a slightly more erratic run than their longer-term home numbers suggest.

Their last match was on 2026-07-29, leaving 14 days between matches.

Everton's away record over the last 20 matches shows a side that struggles to create or convert chances on the road. They have won 7, drawn 5, and lost 8, with a win rate of 35%, while averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.

Their recent form is winless in five, with the sequence L-L-L-D-D (most recent first). During that run they have averaged 1.2 goals scored but have conceded 2.0 per game, pointing to defensive vulnerabilities in recent outings.

Everton's last match was on 2026-07-28, so they also come in with 15 days of rest. The parity in rest days across both sides removes one potential edge.

The head-to-head record spans four meetings, with Everton holding a slight edge. Everton have won two, Newcastle one, and one match ended level.

Newcastle have scored 6 goals in those meetings against Everton's 5, for an average of 2.75 total goals per game. Two of the four meetings produced two or fewer goals, indicating that while the fixture can be open, it has also produced tight, low-scoring affairs.

At St James' Park specifically, two meetings are on record, and Everton won both. That is a small sample, but it is a notable detail given today's venue.

Newcastle's home form and Everton's away form diverge sharply. Newcastle win 60% of their home matches and score twice as many goals as Everton manage on the road (2.1 to 1.05).

The defensive numbers also favor the home side: Newcastle concede 1.4 per game at home, while Everton concede 1.2 away. The gap is narrow, but Newcastle's attacking output at St James' Park is substantially higher.

The home/away splits suggest playing at St James' Park should benefit Newcastle, even though the two prior head-to-head meetings at this venue were won by Everton.

Both teams enter this friendly with similar rest: Newcastle had 14 days since their last match, Everton 15. The match is a standalone friendly rather than part of a season in progress.

The absence of league table data means the analysis is built on recent form and head-to-head encounters. The model's medium confidence reflects that limited foundation; with only four prior meetings and no current-season table, there is considerable uncertainty.

There is no promoted-side adjustment in the model, so neither team is being treated as newly promoted. The projection relies on the home/away splits and recent results, which are the best available indicators for a pre-season fixture.

The Poisson model assigns a 61.3% win probability to Newcastle, 21% to a draw, and 17.6% to Everton. The projected score is 2.01 to 0.97, rounding to a 2-0 home win.

The most likely exact scorelines are 2-0 and 1-0, both at 10.2%, followed by 2-1 at 10%. The total-goals outlook is approximately 2.98, with a 79.8% chance of at least two goals and a 57.2% chance of at least three.

The model also puts the probability that each side scores at least once at 53.9%. On the winning-margin front, the model assigns the largest share of probability, 37.4%, to a Newcastle win by two or more goals, with a one-goal home win next at 24%. The confidence level is medium, so these figures should be read as indicative rather than precise.

The aggregate data points to a Newcastle victory. Their home record is strong, Everton's away form is modest, and the model favors the home side by a clear margin.

The head-to-head record, however, gives Everton a slight historical edge, and the two previous meetings at St James' Park both went to Everton. Those are small samples, but they complicate the picture.

Given the medium confidence level and the limited data available for pre-season, a draw or an away win is not out of the question. The numbers say Newcastle are the more likely winner, but the margin of victory is uncertain.