Newcastle United1-2Bayer Leverkusen

This pre-season friendly sees Newcastle United welcome Bayer Leverkusen to St James Park. Both sides have been off since July 29, giving each 17 days of rest. The model gives the hosts a 58.8% win probability, projecting a 2-1 victory, with the most likely scoreline also 2-1. Newcastle's home form has been strong, while Leverkusen arrive in good scoring touch.

No current league table data is available for Newcastle, but their home record over the last 20 matches is solid: 12 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their recent form, however, has been uneven, with five matches yielding two wins, one draw, and two losses, while scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 per game. That suggests some defensive frailty despite the overall home strength.

Bayer Leverkusen's away form over the same sample shows 10 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their recent five matches have been more productive, with three wins and two losses, averaging 2.4 goals scored and just 1.2 conceded. That recent attacking output is a key reason the model still gives them a 21.8% chance to win.

The two sides have met only once on record, a 2-2 draw in December 2025. That single meeting featured four goals, but one match is far too small a sample to draw any reliable historical pattern. The record shows parity, with both teams scoring twice on the day.

Newcastle's home record is clearly stronger than Leverkusen's away record. The hosts win 60% of their home matches, while Leverkusen win only 50% away. Newcastle also score more at home (2.1 per game) than Leverkusen score on the road (1.5 per game). Both teams concede at similar rates (1.4 per game), which may point to an open contest.

Both teams are coming off a 17-day rest, so neither should have a fatigue disadvantage. There is no league table data to assess schedule strength or current standings, which adds some uncertainty. The single head-to-head meeting was a high-scoring draw, and the model projects a similarly high total of about 3.72 goals. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the limited historical data.

The Poisson model gives Newcastle a 58.8% win probability, with a 19.4% chance of a draw and a 21.8% chance of a Leverkusen win. The projected scoreline is 2-1, and the most likely exact scoreline is also 2-1 at 9.2%. The model expects a combined total of roughly 3.72 goals, with an 88.6% probability of at least two goals and a 71.8% probability of at least three. The winning-margin distribution shows a home victory by two or more goals as the most likely margin (37.5%), followed by a one-goal home win (21.3%).

The data points toward a Newcastle victory, largely due to their strong home record and the model's 58.8% win probability. Leverkusen's recent scoring form could keep them competitive, and the model's medium confidence means the outcome is far from certain. If Leverkusen maintain their recent attacking output, they could force a draw or a narrow loss, but the model's most likely outcome is a Newcastle win with a two-goal margin.