New York Liberty85-66Chicago Sky

This WNBA matchup sees the New York Liberty host the Chicago Sky at Barclays Center. The Liberty have won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings, and their last-20 home record is 14-6 (70%). The model gives New York a 61.5% win probability, the most likely outcome, though the projected margin is a slim 3.3 points.

Over the last 20 home games, the Liberty have won 14 and lost 6, averaging 83.1 points scored and 77.7 conceded. Their most recent five games show four wins and a loss (the most recent match), with averages of 72.8 scored and 71.2 conceded. They last played on 22 August and have had seven days of rest.

The Sky have won only 5 of their last 20 away games, losing 15, while averaging 83.65 points scored and a high 90.4 points conceded. Their recent five games overall are a 2-3 mix, with even averages of 78.4 scored and 78.4 conceded. They last played on 23 August, with six days of rest.

Across seven meetings, the Liberty hold a 6-1 record over the Sky, outscoring them 612-559 in total. The meetings have averaged 167.29 total points. The most recent encounter on 19 August 2026 ended in a 61-53 Liberty win in Chicago.

The Liberty's home form stands out: a 70% win rate and a +5.4 average scoring margin at Barclays Center. The Sky's away form is the reverse: a 25% win rate and a -6.75 average scoring margin. This home/away contrast is a key feature of the matchup.

Both teams have had nearly identical rest periods (seven days for the Liberty, six for the Sky). No league table data is available for either team, so recent form and splits carry the analysis. The model cites medium confidence in its projections, largely reflecting the Liberty's home strength and Sky's road struggles.

The model projects a 78-75 Liberty win, with a 61.5% win probability for New York and 38.5% for Chicago. It expects about 153 total points, a bit below the head-to-head average. Margin distribution: Liberty by 11+ at 26.5%, Liberty by 1-10 at 35%, Sky by 1-10 at 26.1%, and Sky by 11+ at 12.4%, with an average projected margin of 3.3 points.

The data consistently points to a New York Liberty victory: a strong home record, a dominant head-to-head ledger, and a Chicago team that has struggled on the road. The model's most likely outcome is a Liberty win, but the slim 3.3-point projected margin and Chicago's 38.5% win probability mean a competitive game is well within the range of possibilities. A wider Liberty win is plausible if the Sky's away defense falters, while a Sky result would require a reversal of their recent road form.