NEC Nijmegen2-2Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen sit third in the 2025-26 table, leading all teams in goals scored but conceding more than their promotion rivals. Excelsior are near the bottom in goals for and against. The model expects a dominant home victory with an aggregate of 4.56 goals.

NEC have averaged 2.26 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game this season, with a 47.1% win rate. They have scored twice per match on average over their last five, conceding 1.8. Their home form over 20 games averages 2.05 scored and 1.7 conceded, with a 45% win rate.

Excelsior have scored only 1.26 per game and conceded 1.65. They have not won 30% of their league games this season. Their away form over 20 games averages 1.85 scored and 1.9 conceded, with a 40% win rate. Their last five games have seen them average 3.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Excelsior have not won a single meeting in their last two. NEC have won both, scoring 7 goals in the process. One of those matches had two or fewer total goals. No other head-to-head data is available.

NEC have a defensive record at home that is slightly worse than their overall one. Excelsior's away scoring average is better than their season average but their away conceded average is higher.

Excelsior have a 29.4% win rate and a poor defensive record, ranking 13th in the league for goals conceded. NEC have the second-best attack in the league, so a low-scoring draw is not projected.

The model gives NEC a 72.6% win probability, projecting a score of 3-1. The projected aggregate is 4.56 goals, with the model projecting 94.1% for 2+ goals. The model projects NEC to win by two goals or more 54% of the time.

The data strongly supports a NEC victory. Their superior scoring output and home advantage, combined with the model's projection, point to a likely win. A high-scoring match with a home win is the most probable outcome.