Motorlet Praha0-0Dukla Praha B

This is the Round 3 meeting between Motorlet Praha and Dukla Praha B in Czech Bohemian Football League Group A. No league-table data is on record for either side and the teams have never met before, so the model's output is the main reference point. It gives the home side a 66.1% win probability and projects a 1-0 scoreline.

Motorlet's last five league games produced two draws, two defeats and one win (LWDLD, most recent first), with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Across their most recent three home games they have one win, one draw and one defeat, scoring 1.33 per game while conceding 0.67. That gives a 33.3% home win rate from a small sample.

Dukla Praha B come into this game with only one win in their last five matches (LLDWD, most recent first), scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 per game. On the road in their last two away fixtures they are winless with one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. Their away win rate in that sample is 0%.

There are no prior meetings between the two sides on record. With an empty head-to-head history, the model builds its projection from current form and the available sample rather than past results.

Motorlet have played three home matches, earning one win, one draw and one loss while scoring 1.33 and conceding 0.67 per game. Dukla B have only two away games on record, with no wins, a draw and a defeat, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. The samples are tiny, but the home side's defensive numbers are noticeably better.

Both teams have had five days of rest since their most recent outings on 2026-08-16, so neither carries a short-turnaround burden. The larger uncertainty comes from the lack of any head-to-head record and the absence of league table context. Dukla B's away win rate is 0% in the two games captured, but that is too small a base to treat as a strong signal.

With medium confidence, the Poisson model gives Motorlet Praha a 66.1% win probability, a 24% draw probability and a 9.9% probability for Dukla Praha B. The leading exact scoreline is 1-0 (20.8%), with 2-0 (16.6%) and 0-0 (13.1%) next. Total goals project to around 2.04, with a 60.3% chance of two or more goals and just a 28.4% chance that both teams score. The winning-margin distribution has a home win by two or more at 37.1%, a one-goal home win at 29.1%, and the draw at 24%.

The data points strongly to a home win, with the model assigning Motorlet a 66.1% probability and a projected 1-0 margin. The main caveat is the thin information base: Dukla B have just two away games on record and there is no head-to-head history, so the forecast relies on limited evidence. If Dukla's recent away form improves markedly, the 9.9% away-win figure would understate their chances.