MonacovsGórnik Zabrze

This is the second leg of a UEFA Conference League tie, with Monaco hosting Górnik Zabrze after winning the first leg 3-2 away. The model gives Monaco a 44% win probability, while the draw is also prominent at 31.3%. Monaco's one-goal aggregate lead means the tie remains balanced despite their status as favorites.

No league table data is available for Monaco, but their home record over the last 20 matches is 9W 5D 6L, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game. In their last five matches overall they have four wins (WWLWW), averaging 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. They played most recently on 23 August, giving them only four days of rest.

Górnik Zabrze also have no league table data available. Their away form over the last three matches is 1W 0D 2L, averaging one goal scored and one conceded per game. Across their last five fixtures (LWDWL), they average 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, with two wins, one draw, and two losses. They last played on 20 August, a full seven days before this match.

The only prior meeting between these sides came on 20 August 2026, when Monaco won 3-2 in Górnik Zabrze. That gives Monaco a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head series, with a combined five goals in the single match. The sample is too small to lean on for prediction.

Monaco's home form over the past 20 matches shows a 45% win rate and modest scoring numbers (1.4 for, 1.15 against). Their recent five-match run is slightly more productive overall, averaging 1.6 scored. Górnik's three away matches have produced just one win and a 33.3% win rate, with an away average of one goal scored and one conceded; their overall recent scoring average of 1.6 is higher than that away mark.

Monaco face a short turnaround, having played four days prior, while Górnik have had a full week off since the first leg. The first-leg result gives Monaco a 3-2 aggregate lead, meaning a single goal could shift the balance of the tie.

The Poisson model assigns Monaco a 44% win probability, with a draw at 31.3% and an away win at 24.6%, and rates its confidence as medium. Its most likely outcome is a Monaco win, and the projected scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0 also the most likely exact score at 17.2%. The model projects about 1.87 total goals, giving a 55.9% chance of two or more and a 35.7% chance that both teams score. In the winning-margin distribution, home by one (25.5%) and the draw (31.3%) are the most common single margins, while home by two or more sits at 18.5%.

The data favors Monaco, with the strongest single result a home win and a one-goal lead from the first leg. The medium-confidence model still leaves significant room for a draw (31.3%) or a one-goal Górnik win (17.2%). A low-scoring second leg that ends level, or a narrow home win, are the most consistent with the projections. The verdict would be undermined if Górnik win by two or more, which the model places at just 7.4%.