MixcovsAlianza

This Round 5 CONCACAF Central American Cup tie brings together Mixco, who have won all five home matches on record, and Alianza, who have taken one win from four away games. The model makes Mixco the strong favourite at 69.6%, with a projected 1-0 scoreline.

Mixco have won all five home matches on record, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Their last five matches across all venues are WWLLW, with three wins and two losses, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.8 per game. The home sample is perfect but small.

Alianza have one win, two draws and one defeat in their last four away matches, averaging 0.75 goals for and against. Their last five overall are WLLWD (two wins, two losses and a draw), with 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Road form is modest, and they arrive on a three-day turnaround.

No prior meetings between Mixco and Alianza are on record, so there is no head-to-head history to weigh. The sample is too small to draw any comparative conclusions.

Mixco have played five home matches and won all five, a perfect record that anchors the model's home lean. Alianza's away win rate is 25%, and they have conceded an average of 0.75 goals per road game. The venue splits reinforce the projected home advantage.

Alianza are on a congested schedule, with only three days of rest since their last match, while Mixco have had five days. Neither side has league table data available, leaving cup form and the scheduling context as the main inputs. The rest differential is a clear edge for the hosts.

The model gives Mixco a 69.6% win probability, with a draw at 23.7% and an Alianza win at 6.7%. The projected scoreline is 1-0, and the most likely exact scores are 1-0 (24.4%), 2-0 (19%) and 0-0 (15.6%). It expects about 1.86 total goals, with a 55.4% chance of at least two goals and only a 20.3% chance both teams score. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a narrow Mixco victory, with the model favouring a win by one or two goals. A draw or away win is not impossible, but the combined probability is just 30.4%. The main caveats are the absence of head-to-head history and the small sample behind Mixco's perfect home record.