Miami HeatvsNew Orleans Pelicans

Miami begin their season at Kaseya Center against a New Orleans side whose last competitive outing came on 13 April, a 178-day gap. The model makes the Heat a 68.9% favourite and projects a 130-124 scoreline. The two most substantial samples in the data are Miami's 12-8 home record over their last 20 games and New Orleans' 5-15 mark on the road over the same span.

No league table is on record for either side, so Miami's home log is the primary reference: 12 wins in 20 at Kaseya Center, averaging 125.25 points scored and 119.4 conceded. Their last five overall read LLWWL, at 125.6 scored and 123.6 conceded per game, with the most recent outing on 3 October. They have had five days since that game, a standard in-season turnaround.

New Orleans' road record across their last 20 is 5-15, a 25% win rate, scoring 113.65 and conceding 118.95. Their last five, all drawn from the closing weeks of the previous season, read LLWLL with 124.2 scored and 128.4 conceded. That form is 178 days old, which makes it a notably weaker guide than Miami's.

Miami have won all five recorded meetings, outscoring New Orleans 621-528, an average of 229.8 points per game across the series. The narrowest was a 101-99 Miami win in October 2024; the widest was 153-104 in April 2025. Five meetings is a small sample, and all five predate this season.

This is the widest gap the data offers: Miami score 125.25 per home game, New Orleans 113.65 per away game, an 11.6-point difference in venue-specific output. Defensively the two are close, at 119.4 conceded at home for Miami against 118.95 on the road for New Orleans. With no table data to normalise against, these splits are the cleanest venue evidence available.

The dominant flag is New Orleans' 178-day layoff: this is their season opener, and every number attached to them comes from the previous campaign. Miami's five-day gap is a normal in-season interval. Because roughly six months separate the Pelicans' form sample from this fixture, the model rates its confidence as medium rather than high.

The model puts Miami at 68.9% and New Orleans at 31.1%, projecting 130-124 for a 5.6-point margin and about 253 combined points. The margin distribution splits the home win into 33.3% by 11 or more and 35.6% by 1-10, against 21.9% for an away win by 1-10 and 9.2% by 11 or more. A single-digit Miami win is therefore the largest individual band, though the two double-digit-winning outcomes together account for a meaningful share.

Miami's home record, New Orleans' road record, a 5-0 head-to-head and a 68.9% model probability all point the same direction. The counterweight is age of evidence: the Pelicans' profile rests on games played six months ago, and this is their first outing of the season. If that road record no longer describes them, the model's central number is what breaks.