Merani Tbilisi4-1Gardabani

Merani Tbilisi host Gardabani in a round 19 Liga 3 fixture, with both sides on seven days' rest. The model strongly favors the home side, giving them a 77% win probability, and projects a 2-0 scoreline. Gardabani arrive on a five-match losing streak.

Merani Tbilisi's last five matches have produced two wins, a draw, and two losses (WLDDW), with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. At home over their last three, they are without a win (0W 2D 1L), averaging one goal scored and 2.67 conceded.

Gardabani have lost all of their last five matches, scoring 0.6 goals per game and conceding 3.4. Their most recent two away games were also defeats, with 0.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded on average.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record, so the head-to-head provides no signal for this fixture.

Merani Tbilisi's home form over the sample is middling—no wins in their last three—yet the model still expects a decisive margin. Gardabani have played only two away games in the data, both losses, so their away split is based on a small sample.

Both teams have had seven days since their last match. Gardabani are on a five-match losing run, while Merani Tbilisi's recent home record shows two draws and a loss. No league-table data is available for either side, and with no head-to-head meetings, the overall sample is thin.

With medium confidence, the Poisson model projects a 2-0 home win, with expected goals of 2.79 for Merani Tbilisi and 0.88 for Gardabani. It assigns a 77% probability to a home victory and puts the chance of a home win by two or more goals at 56.7%. The total-goals projection sits around 3.67, with an 88.1% probability of two or more goals. The highest-probability exact scores are 2-0, 3-0, and 2-1.

The data points strongly to a Merani Tbilisi win, most likely by a comfortable margin. The main caveat is their lack of a home win in the last three matches, which adds uncertainty to the projection despite the model's clear preference.