MaitlandvsEdgeworth

Edgeworth visit Cooks Square Park for this Northern NSW NPL fixture with the model's highest win probability at 43.9%, compared with 21.7% for Maitland and 34.5% for a draw. The two sides met two weeks ago, when Maitland won 2-1. That result, however, is a single datapoint in a sparse head-to-head record.

Maitland's recent five-game run reads DWWWL, with 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. At Cooks Square Park, their last four games have produced one win, one draw and two losses, averaging 0.75 scored and 1.0 conceded. No league table position is available for this season.

Edgeworth come into this match on a WLWDW sequence, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across those five games. Their away record over the last two matches is one win and one loss, with an average of 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. Their recent output is slightly stronger than the hosts across the same sample.

The only prior meeting on record came on 16 August 2026, when Maitland won 2-1 at home. With a sample of one match, the head-to-head offers little reliable guidance beyond the final score.

Maitland's home form over the last four games is modest: a 25% win rate and an average of 0.75 goals scored. Edgeworth's away sample is only two games, so their 50% win rate carries limited weight. Neither team's overall league standing is available to provide further context.

Both teams have had seven days since their last match, so neither carries a rest disadvantage. With no league table data and only one prior meeting on record, the evidence base for this fixture is thin.

The model's confidence is medium. It gives Edgeworth a 43.9% win probability, the draw 34.5% and Maitland 21.7%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-0 (20.5%), just ahead of 0-1 (20.2%). It projects roughly 1.59 total goals, with a 47.1% chance of two or more and a 28.3% chance of both teams scoring; the most common single margin is a draw at 34.5%, followed by an away win by one goal at 26.8%.

The data points to a tight, low-scoring game with Edgeworth as the most likely winner at 43.9%, though the draw at 34.5% is a significant alternative. Maitland's home form and Edgeworth's recent output both support the model's medium confidence. A home win would contradict the forecast, as would a high-scoring match, but the model already assigns meaningful probability to those scenarios.