Mławianka Mława2-3Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki

Round 4 of the Polish III liga Group I brings Mławianka Mława and Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki together at Stadion MOSiR w Mławie. The data available is limited to recent match results and venue splits, as no league table record is provided for either side. The model forms a clear view, giving the home side an 82% win probability and a projected 3-1 scoreline.

That projected margin aligns with Mławianka's strong home record in their last three matches, while Lechia's away form is more mixed. With no head-to-head history on record, this preview relies on current form, goal averages, and the model's output.

Mławianka Mława's recent form across all venues is LLWWW, with their last five matches producing an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Their most recent match was on 2026-08-14.

At home, their last three matches show 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with an average of 2.67 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, giving a 66.7% win rate. That home scoring rate is notably above their overall recent average, while their home concession rate is lower as well.

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki arrive with a recent overall record of WLLWL across their last five matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. They also last played on 2026-08-14.

Away from home, their last three matches show 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game, for a 33.3% win rate. Compared to their overall recent numbers, Lechia tend to be involved in lower-scoring games on the road, with fewer goals on both sides of the ball.

No prior meetings between Mławianka Mława and Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki are on record. With zero historical encounters, there is no head-to-head pattern to draw on for this fixture.

The lack of head-to-head data increases the reliance on current form and venue splits. The model's assessment is therefore built entirely from recent results, which makes the projection less anchored in a direct competitive history than would be ideal.

Mławianka Mława's home numbers in their last three matches at Stadion MOSiR w Mławie are strong, with 2 wins and 1 loss, scoring 2.67 and conceding 1.00 per game. That is a significant improvement over their overall recent average of 2.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, particularly defensively.

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki's away numbers show 1 win and 2 losses in their last three, averaging 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. That is a lower-scoring profile than their overall recent average of 2.2 scored and 2.2 conceded, suggesting they are deader in away matches but also slightly stingier.

Both sides have had five days of rest since their last competitive match on 2026-08-14, so neither enters with a meaningful fatigue advantage. No schedule congestion or seasonal opening flags are indicated in the data.

The absence of a league table record and any head-to-head history leaves a thinner informational base than usual. The model's medium confidence rating reflects that, even as the home/away form split points in a fairly clear direction. Promoted-side uncertainty does not apply here, as no adjusted strength flag is present.

The Poisson goal model gives Mławianka Mława an 82% win probability, with a 10.5% chance of a draw and a 7.5% chance of an away win. The projected scoreline is 3-1, with expected goal values of 3.55 for the home side and 1.1 for the visitors.

The most likely exact scorelines are 3-1 at 7.9%, 3-0 at 7.2%, and 4-1 at 7%. The model projects a combined total of approximately 4.65 goals, with an 84.1% probability of three or more goals and a 64.7% probability that both sides score at least once.

On the winning margin, the model puts a 65.8% chance on the home side winning by two or more goals, and a 16.2% chance of a one-goal home win. This points to a decisive margin being more likely than a tight one, though the medium confidence level leaves room for a narrower outcome.

The data collectively points to a Mławianka Mława home win. Their home form is strong, their scoring rate at home is high, and the model assigns an 82% probability to that outcome. The projected scoreline of 3-1 fits a scenario where the home side controls the game and scores multiple times.

That said, the lack of head-to-head history and league table context tempers certainty. If Lechia's recent scoring output (2.2 per game overall) travels better than their away numbers suggest, the match could be closer than the model anticipates. Still, the evidence available supports a comfortable home victory as the most likely result, while acknowledging the model's medium confidence.