Lyon3-0Sparta Prague

No league table data is available for either side in this UEFA Champions League fixture, which sees Lyon host Sparta Prague at Groupama Stadium on 11 August 2026. The two teams met a week ago, when Sparta Prague claimed a 2-1 win.

The most significant numbers are Lyon's home record and Sparta Prague's away record. Lyon have won 14 of their last 20 at home, while Sparta Prague have won 3 of their last 8 away. The model gives Lyon a 76.9% chance of winning this match.

Lyon's home form over the last 20 matches is strong: 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, with an average of 1.85 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game. That represents a 70% win rate at Groupama Stadium.

Across their last five matches, Lyon have won once and lost four times (LLWLL), averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Their most recent outing was the 2-1 defeat to Sparta Prague on 2026-08-04.

Sparta Prague's away record over the last 8 matches is 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with an average of 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game, a 37.5% win rate.

In their last five matches overall, Sparta Prague have lost four and won one (WLLLL), averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Their only win in that span was the 2-1 victory over Lyon on 2026-08-04.

Only one head-to-head meeting is on record. On 2026-08-04, Sparta Prague beat Lyon 2-1.

With a single sample, the head-to-head record is too small to carry meaningful predictive weight. It confirms only that the two sides have met once in the available data, and that Sparta Prague won that match.

This fixture reverses the venue of the previous meeting, which was at Sparta Prague. Lyon are now at home in the Groupama Stadium.

Lyon's home split shows a 70% win rate, with 1.85 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game. Sparta Prague's away split shows a 37.5% win rate, with 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. The contrast between these two is the most pronounced factor in the match-up.

Both sides have had seven days of rest since their last match, which was the same fixture between them. No scheduling imbalances are indicated.

The lack of league table data means the available sample consists only of recent form and the home/away splits provided. Lyon's recent form shows a marked increase in goals conceded (2.4 per game in the last five) compared with their home average (1.05). Sparta Prague's recent form is also poor, with four losses in five, despite their away record being modest. The model's medium confidence further reflects the limited data.

The Poisson goal model gives Lyon a 76.9% win probability, a 14% draw probability and Sparta Prague a 9.1% win probability. That makes a home win the model's most likely outcome.

The projected score is 2-0, with expected goals of 2.76 for Lyon and 0.87 for Sparta Prague. Among exact scorelines, 2-0 is the most likely individual result at 10.1%, with 3-0 at 9.3% and 2-1 at 8.8%. The model's confidence is medium.

The accumulated data points to a Lyon win. Their home record is strong, Sparta Prague's away record is modest, and the model assigns a clear probability advantage to the home side.

At the same time, the single head-to-head result and Lyon's recent defensive numbers suggest caution. Lyon have conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last five matches, well above the 1.05 they concede at home on average. If that recent trend carries into this match, the projected 2-0 scoreline could be optimistic. On the available data, though, Lyon are the side the model expects to win.