Los Angeles Sparks77-68Connecticut Sun

This WNBA fixture at Crypto.com Arena pits the Los Angeles Sparks against the Connecticut Sun. The model gives the Sparks a 74.1% win probability, a substantial advantage, while the Sun are pegged at 25.9%. The two teams met five days ago in Connecticut, where the Sun took an 85-77 victory. This time the venue flips to Los Angeles, where the Sparks have a 40% home win rate over their last 20 games, against the Sun's 25% away win rate over the same sample.

Over their last 20 home games, the Sparks have posted an 8-12 record, good for a 40% win rate. They average 87.15 points scored and 90.45 conceded at home, a net rating of minus 3.3 points per game. In their last five outings overall, they have alternated between losses and wins (LWLWL), scoring 76.4 points per game and allowing 76.8. That scoring average is noticeably below their typical home output, though the five-game sample mixes home and away contests.

The Connecticut Sun have struggled on the road, going 5-15 in their last 20 away games for a 25% win rate. Their road averages are 78.3 points scored and 88.9 conceded, a net rating of minus 10.6. In their last five games overall, they hold a 2-3 record (WLLWL), with averages of 73.4 scored and 83.6 conceded. Their most recent result was a home win against the Sparks on August 18.

The five recorded meetings between these teams have produced three Sparks wins and two Sun wins. Los Angeles has outscored Connecticut 453-434 in those games, an average margin of 3.8 points per meeting. The combined point total has averaged 177.4 per game. The two most recent matchups, both in 2026 and both at Connecticut, were won by the Sun, 85-77 and 84-81. The previous three meetings in 2025 all went to the Sparks, with one of those wins coming on the road.

The Sparks' home record (8-12) is stronger than the Sun's away record (5-15), and the scoring averages reflect that gap. At home, the Sparks score about 8.9 more points per game than the Sun do on the road (87.15 vs 78.3). Defensively, the Sun allow 88.9 points per road game, slightly fewer than the 90.45 the Sparks give up at home. The model projects a total around 158 points, which is lower than the combined season-long averages of these splits, suggesting a more controlled pace than the raw numbers imply.

Both teams enter with five days of rest since their August 18 meeting, so fatigue is not a differentiator. The Sparks' home advantage is the clearest factor, as their home win rate is 15 percentage points higher than the Sun's away win rate. However, the Sun have won the two most recent head-to-head fixtures, both at home, so this road game represents a different setting. The model's medium confidence is reflected in the margin distribution, which gives a 39.2% chance of a double-digit home win and a 34.9% chance of a single-digit home win.

The normal-distribution margin model assigns a 74.1% win probability to the Sparks and 25.9% to the Sun. It projects a final score of 83-75, a margin of 7.4 points. The expected total of about 158 combined points is lower than the 177.4 average from the five head-to-head meetings and also below the sum of the Sparks' home scoring average and the Sun's away scoring average (165.45). The margin distribution breaks down as follows: the Sparks win by 11 or more in 39.2% of simulations, by 1-10 in 34.9%, while the Sun win by 1-10 in 18.6% and by 11+ in 7.3%. This indicates a clear home lean, but with a meaningful share of close games.

The model's projection, combined with the Sun's poor road record, points to a Los Angeles win. The Sparks have the stronger venue-specific numbers, and the model gives them a commanding 74.1% probability. That said, the Sun have taken the last two meetings, and the model's medium confidence is a reminder that the outcome is not a lock. The projected margin is about seven points, with a double-digit home victory nearly as plausible as a single-digit one. If the Sun continue their recent head-to-head success, they could beat the projection, but the weight of the data favors the Sparks.