Levante5-2Real Betis

Round 3 of La Liga brings Levante, 16th in last season's table, against Real Betis, 5th. With only two matchdays played, last season's numbers are the reference point. The model favors the visitors at 47.5% win probability.

Levante finished 2025-26 with 42 points from 38 games, averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.61 conceded. Their last five matches read DLWLW, averaging one goal scored and one conceded per game. At home over the last 20 they won 8, drew 5, and lost 7.

Real Betis collected 60 points last season, averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.26 conceded. Their recent form is WLDWW, conceding 0.8 per game in that stretch. Away from home they won 7, drew 7, and lost 6 of their last 20.

The two sides have met only twice, with Levante yet to win. Betis took a 2-1 home win and a 2-2 draw, making both meetings high-scoring. The sample is too small to carry much weight.

Levante's home numbers show 1.4 scored and 1.45 conceded per game, a slight improvement on their overall defensive rate. Betis score less away (1.35) than overall (1.55) but concede at the same 1.45 per game. Drawn matches made up 35% of Betis' recent away games.

Betis enter with more rest, eight days since their last match versus five for Levante. Both clubs have faced similar average opponent strength in their recent fixtures. The current-season table is too small to be meaningful, so last season's form remains the primary guide.

The model gives Real Betis a 47.5% chance to win, against 29.2% for Levante and 23.3% for a draw. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, but the most likely result is an away win. It projects about 3.1 total goals, with an 81.3% chance of two or more goals and a 60.9% chance both teams score. The winning-margin distribution is led by an away win by two-plus goals at 25.7%.

The data points to a Real Betis victory, underpinned by their superior league position and recent form. Levante's home record is respectable but their defensive numbers were the worst in the division last season. A low-scoring draw at 1-1 is the most plausible alternative, but the model's high confidence favors the visitors.