Levadia U19 Tallinn1-0Tallinna Legion

Levadia U19 Tallinn host Tallinna Legion at Maarjamäe Staadion in Round 25 of the Estonian Esiliiga B. Neither side has league table data on record, so this preview leans on recent form and the model's projections. The Poisson model gives the home side a 75.8% win probability and a projected 4-2 scoreline.

Levadia U19 have won two of their last three home matches, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.67 per game. Their overall last five form reads WWWWL, with their most recent outing a defeat. Across those five they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.

Tallinna Legion have one win, one draw and one loss in their last three away games, conceding 4.33 per match. Their last five overall is DDLWW, ending with two straight wins. They average 2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across those five.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record. With an empty head-to-head sample, the model's probabilities rest entirely on current form and venue splits.

Levadia U19's home splits show modest attacking output: 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across three matches. Tallinna Legion's away form is high-scoring but leaky, with 2.0 scored and 4.33 conceded. The defensive contrast is the sharpest number in this fixture.

Tallinna Legion are on a congested schedule, playing three days after their last match on 2026-08-21, while Levadia U19 had five days of rest. That rest differential is a factor to consider. Recent matches for both sides have been goal-heavy, and the model expects that to continue.

The model rates Levadia U19's win chance at 75.8%, with a draw at 10.9% and an away win at 13.3%. It projects about 6.8 total goals, with a 90.3% probability of at least four and an 88% chance both teams score. The most likely exact scorelines are 4-2, 5-2 and 4-1, and a home win by two or more is the leading margin outcome at 61.3%. Confidence is medium.

The data points strongly to a Levadia U19 win, likely by a margin of two or more given the model's 61.3% projection for that outcome. That call would be wrong if Tallinna Legion's recent form translates into a closer match than the model expects, or if the rest advantage proves less significant than assumed.