Levadia Tallinn4-0Narva Trans

Round 24 of the Estonian Meistriliiga brings Levadia Tallinn and Narva Trans together at A. Le Coq Arena. The model gives the home side an 82% win probability, underpinned by Levadia's recent scoring output of nearly two goals per match. Narva Trans arrive with a negative goal difference across their last two away games.

Levadia's last five results read WWDLL, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. At home in their last three they have one win and two losses, scoring exactly two per match on average while conceding 1.33.

Narva Trans' most recent five form is DLWWL, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their last two away fixtures produced one win and one loss, with one goal scored and two conceded per game on average.

No prior meetings between these two clubs are on record, so the head-to-head sample is too small to offer any meaningful guide for this fixture.

Levadia's home win rate over the last three matches at A. Le Coq Arena is 33.3%, in line with their broader recent form. Narva Trans have a 50% win rate from their last two away games but an expected goal difference of minus one per match away from home.

Both sides have had five days of rest since their last outings, so there is no scheduling edge either way. With no head-to-head history to lean on, the model's projection rests almost entirely on each team's recent scoring and defensive numbers.

The Poisson model projects a 3-0 scoreline as the most likely exact result, with expected goals of 3.19 for Levadia and 0.88 for Narva Trans. It expects roughly four combined goals, giving a 91.3% probability of at least two goals and a 57.7% chance of four or more, while both sides score in 56% of scenarios. The model's confidence is medium, and it gives Levadia a 64.2% probability of winning by two or more goals versus 17.7% for a one-goal home win.

The data points to a comfortable Levadia victory, with the model's most likely outcome being a home win at 82%. That projection would be called into question if Narva Trans' recent away win signals a stronger road performance, but the overall numbers heavily favor the hosts.