Leganés0-0Tenerife

This pre-season friendly sees Leganés host Tenerife at Ontime Butarque. The data available covers only recent form and home/away splits, with no league table position or prior meetings between the sides. The most striking contrast is in away form: Tenerife have won once in their last 20 away matches, while Leganés hold a 35% home win rate over the same sample. A Poisson model gives the hosts a 62.5% win probability, with a projected 1-0 scoreline.

Both sides enter after a similar layoff — Leganés last played on 24 July and Tenerife on 22 July — and both have modest recent scoring numbers. The model nonetheless expects a low-scoring game, with 1-0 the most common single result.

Leganés have no league table data in the provided figures. Their last 20 home matches produced 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats, a 35% win rate, with an average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game.

In their last five matches overall, the sequence reads win, win, loss, draw, loss, with an average of 0.8 scored and 1 conceded. Their most recent outing was on 24 July, giving them 15 days of rest.

Tenerife's away record over their last 20 matches is stark: 1 win, 5 draws and 14 defeats, a 5% win rate, with an average of 0.65 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.

The most recent five matches show four defeats and a draw, with an average of 0.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their most recent outing was on 22 July, giving them 17 days of rest.

There are no prior meetings between Leganés and Tenerife in the data provided. With no head-to-head record to draw on, this fixture offers no historical signal.

Leganés are at home for this friendly. Their 35% home win rate, while modest in absolute terms, far exceeds Tenerife's 5% away win rate over the same 20-match sample. Tenerife's away matches have seen them concede an average of 1.7 goals while scoring 0.65, a combination that points to home dominance.

Leganés enter with 15 days of rest and Tenerife with 17, a negligible difference for a pre-season friendly. Tenerife's recent scoring has been especially low — 0.2 goals per game in their last five matches — while Leganés have won two of their last five. No league table data or prior meetings are available, so the model relies primarily on recent form and venue splits. Tenerife's poor away record is the clearest factor in the projection.

The Poisson model projects a home win with 62.5% probability, a draw at 25.9% and an away win at 11.6%. The expected goals are 1.49 for Leganés and 0.47 for Tenerife, yielding a projected 1-0 scoreline. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (20.9%), 2-0 (15.6%) and 0-0 (14.1%). The model's confidence is rated as medium.

All available data points to a Leganés victory. Their home record, though not dominant, is far stronger than Tenerife's away record, and the model assigns them a 62.5% win probability. The most probable scoreline is 1-0, with a low-scoring game expected. That said, the medium confidence rating and the absence of head-to-head data mean a draw is not an unlikely outcome — the model still gives it a 25.9% chance. If the match follows the model's lower-scoring tail, 0-0 is a plausible alternative.