Las Vegas Aces93-73Toronto Tempo

Las Vegas Aces host Toronto Tempo with the model giving the home side a 70.4% win probability. That projection aligns with the Aces' 65% home win rate over their last 20 games at home and Toronto's 22.2% away win rate over 18 games. Both teams arrive with six days of rest since their last match on August 23.

No league table data is available for Las Vegas this season. At home across the last 20 games, the Aces have won 13 and lost 7, averaging 80.85 points scored and 78.5 conceded. Their last five games overall produced a 3-2 record with unusually low scoring on both ends: 53.2 scored and 52 conceded per game.

Toronto's away record over the last 18 games is 4-14, a 22.2% win rate, with 88.67 points scored and 96 conceded per game. Recent form shows a 1-4 stretch in the last five, again with high-scoring output (85 scored, 91 conceded). The Tempo's road games tend to be high-scoring but tilted against them defensively.

The two recorded meetings both took place in Toronto, and Las Vegas won each: 88-78 on August 23, 2026, and 109-83 on July 21, 2026. Over those games the Aces outscored the Tempo 197-161, an average of 98.5 to 80.5 per meeting. A two-game sample is small, but the results match the broader home/away split.

At home, Las Vegas have averaged 80.85 scored and 78.5 conceded across their last 20 games. On the road, Toronto have averaged 88.67 scored and 96 conceded across their last 18. Both prior head-to-head meetings were hosted by Toronto, so this is the first time the Aces face the Tempo at their own venue in the recorded data.

Both squads have had an identical six-day rest period since their last outings. The biggest statistical gap is in home/away performance: a 65% home win rate against a 22.2% away win rate. The model's medium confidence and the small head-to-head sample suggest some uncertainty, and Toronto's road scoring average is high enough to keep the projected margin relatively modest.

The model projects a Las Vegas win at 70.4% probability, with expected scores of 74.6 and 68.5, for a margin of about 6.1 points. The total is projected at around 143 combined points. The margin distribution shows a home win by 1-10 points at 35.5% and by 11+ at 34.9%, while an away win is weighted heavily toward 1-10 points (21% vs 8.7% for 11+). Confidence is medium.

The evidence consistently favors Las Vegas: strong home record, Toronto's road struggles, and a 2-0 head-to-head edge. The projected margin of six points and the margin distribution suggest a competitive game, with a home blowout nearly as likely as a single-digit home win. A Toronto upset would require the Tempo to overcome their road defensive issues — they concede 96 per game away — and deliver their average road scoring output while holding the Aces below their home norm.