Las Vegas AcesvsIndiana Fever

Las Vegas Aces host Indiana Fever at Michelob Ultra Arena, two days after the same two teams met in Indiana. Neither side has league table data on record here, so the read leans on home/away splits, recent form and the head-to-head series. The model makes Las Vegas a heavy favourite at 81.6%, with a projected score of 95-85.

The Aces are 15-5 across their last 20 home games, scoring 83.15 and conceding 76.35 in that sample, a 75% home win rate. Their last five games read LWWWW, with a notably higher scoring average of 95.6 against 84.4 conceded. They are on a short turnaround, two days removed from their most recent game.

Indiana are 10-10 across their last 20 away games, scoring 88.8 and conceding 88.95 — effectively even at both ends. Their last five read WLLWL, averaging 84.6 scored and 89.4 conceded, so recent scoring sits below their season-long road output while the defensive figure is slightly worse. They are also working on two days' rest.

Ten meetings are on record and the series is level at 5-5. Indiana have scored 878 points across those games to Las Vegas's 857, with the fixtures averaging 173.5 points per meeting. The most recent meeting went Indiana's way, 99-89, while the four most recent are split two apiece.

Las Vegas's home win rate of 75% is the standout split in this fixture, paired with a concession rate of 76.35 at home. Indiana's road record is a flat 50%, and they concede marginally more than they score away from home. Both teams' overall season numbers are unavailable, so these splits cannot be checked against a full-season baseline.

Both teams are flagged as congested with two days since their last outing on 2026-09-29 — the same game, played in Indiana. With no league table on record for either side, the home/away samples and the ten head-to-head results carry most of the analytical weight. That leaves the projection resting on a relatively narrow set of inputs.

The normal-distribution margin model gives Las Vegas 81.6% and Indiana 18.4%, at medium confidence. It projects 95-85, a margin of 10.5 points and roughly 180 combined points — a little above the 173.5 the head-to-head series has averaged. The margin distribution is skewed but not one-sided: Las Vegas by 11 or more 50%, Las Vegas by 1-10 31.6%, Indiana by 1-10 13.6%, Indiana by 11 or more 4.8%.

The home split, the recent scoring averages and the model's 81.6% all point the same way, and Las Vegas's recent 95.6-point output lines up with the projected 95. What would undercut it is the head-to-head itself: the series is 5-5, Indiana have outscored Las Vegas across those ten meetings, and the most recent result went Indiana's way by ten. The model still assigns Indiana an 18.4% chance.