Las Vegas Aces101-78Connecticut Sun

This WNBA regular-season meeting pits the Las Vegas Aces against the Connecticut Sun at Mandalay Bay Events Center. The Aces enter with a 75% home win rate over their last 20 games at this arena, while the Sun have won just 25% of their last 20 road games. The head-to-head history is thoroughly one-sided: Las Vegas have won all six recorded meetings between the teams.

The model gives the home side a 69.8% win probability, with a projected score of 83-77. That expected margin of 5.9 points suggests the contest could be tighter than the overall record implies, even as the Aces remain the clear favorite.

Las Vegas have been formidable at home, winning 15 of their last 20 on their own floor. In those games they average 88.1 points scored and 84.45 conceded. Their recent overall form, though, shows some slippage: in the last five matches they have gone WWWLL, averaging 74.2 points scored and 80.4 conceded.

That drop in scoring and a rise in points allowed are worth noting as the Aces prepare for this matchup. They last played on August 16 and will have five days of rest by the time they take the court.

Connecticut have struggled away from home, with a 5-15 record in their last 20 road games. They average 78.3 points scored and 88.9 conceded on the road, a defensive figure that does not bode well against a home side that scores at a high clip.

The Sun's recent overall form is also poor: they have lost four of their last five, with the lone win mixed among defeats. In that stretch they average 74 points scored and 87 conceded. They last played on August 15 and enter with six days of rest.

The six meetings on record have all gone to Las Vegas. The Aces have outscored Connecticut 551 to 438 in those games, an average of 91.8 to 73.0 per meeting. Combined, the two teams have averaged 164.8 points per game in this fixture.

The most recent two encounters, both in 2026, also ended in Aces victories: a 101-94 result in Connecticut and a 98-69 result on the road. While the sample is not large, the pattern is consistent across the recorded head-to-head history.

Mandalay Bay Events Center has been a stronghold for Las Vegas, where they hold a 75% win rate over their last 20 home games. Their home scoring average of 88.1 points is higher than what the Sun have typically conceded on the road, suggesting the Aces' offense could find success.

Defensively, the Aces allow 84.45 points per game at home, while Connecticut score 78.3 per game on the road. Those numbers point to a home advantage, though the Sun's recent form suggests they might not be as far off as the overall splits indicate.

Neither team is playing on short rest: the Aces have had five days since their last game and the Sun six. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting some uncertainty in the projections.

The Aces' recent two-game losing streak in their last five is a counterweight to their strong home record, while the Sun have lost four of five overall. However, the head-to-head dominance and the stark home/away splits are the most prominent factors in the data. No current league standings are included, so this preview relies on the available form, splits, and head-to-head record.

The normal-distribution margin model assigns a 69.8% win probability to the Aces and 30.2% to the Sun. The projected score is 83-77, for an expected margin of 5.9 points. The model projects about 160 combined points.

The margin distribution shows the highest probability at a home win by 1-10 points, at 35.5%, with a home win by 11 or more at 34.2%. An away win by 1-10 points has a 21.3% probability, while an away win by 11+ is at 8.9%. The model therefore sees a home victory as the clear most likely outcome, but the margin could be modest.

The data collectively points to a Las Vegas win. Their home record is strong, Connecticut's road record is weak, and the Aces have won every recorded meeting between the teams. With the model's most likely outcome being a home win and a projected margin under six points, the Aces are the clear favorite.

A Connecticut upset would require reversing a long track record on the road and in this specific matchup. The Sun have the recent form to suggest they can compete, but the overall numbers favor Las Vegas. The Aces' recent dip in form and the model's medium confidence keep the door slightly ajar for the visitors, but the preponderance of evidence points to a home victory.