Landskrona1-1Östersund

Round 21 of the Swedish Superettan takes Landskrona to face Östersund at Landskrona Idrottsplats. The model's numbers make Östersund the clear favorite, with a 49.4% win probability against 17.7% for the hosts and a projected scoreline of 0-1.

Landskrona have struggled on their own patch recently, going winless in their last two home matches (0W 1D 1L) while averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1 conceded. Their wider recent form is mixed, with one defeat in the last five (D-W-D-W-L) and an average of 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded per game.

Östersund arrive in strong form, unbeaten in their last five matches (D-W-D-W-W) and without a loss in their last three away games, taking one win and two draws. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match, the latter higher than their overall rate of 0.4.

The only meeting on record came in July, when Östersund won 2-0 at home. That is too small a sample to lean on, though it matches the model's current assessment.

Landskrona's home form in the available sample is weaker than their overall numbers: they score 0.5 and concede 1 per game at Landskrona Idrottsplats, versus 1 scored and 0.8 conceded across their last five. Östersund's away matches have been more open, with 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded per game compared to 1 scored and 0.4 conceded overall.

Both sides come in with five days of rest after playing on August 24, so there is no scheduling edge. The model projects a low-scoring game at 1.63 total goals, with a 48.4% chance of two or more and just a 27.4% chance that both teams score. No league table data is available for either side, leaving the small form samples as the only comparative guide.

The model's most likely outcome is an Östersund win at 49.4%, with the draw at 32.8% and Landskrona at 17.7%. The most likely scorelines are 0-1 at 21.5%, 0-0 at 19.6% and 0-2 at 11.8%, with the projected expected score at 0.53 to 1.1. Away margins of one goal (28.5%) and two-plus goals (21%) are the most probable outcomes after the draw. Confidence is medium.

The data collectively points to an Östersund win, but the medium confidence and the 32.8% draw probability argue against reading it as a near-certainty. Landskrona's weak home scoring and the single head-to-head defeat support the away lean, though a 0-0 draw is almost as likely as the 0-1 away win according to the model. If Landskrona's home output improves on the limited sample, the picture would shift.