Kottern0-1Wasserburg

This German Oberliga Bayern Süd fixture at Kieswerkstadion marks the first recorded meeting between Kottern and Wasserburg. The model gives Kottern a 52.9% win probability, the only majority share among the three outcomes. Both sides are on a three-day turnaround after playing on 18 August.

Kottern sit without a listed league record, but their last five matches show 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. At home in their last two, they split one win and one loss with 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. They last played on 18 August, three days before this match.

Wasserburg's recent five matches average 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, with two wins, two losses and a draw. On the road in their last three, they have one win and two losses, scoring 2.0 per game but conceding 3.33. They also played on 18 August, so the short turnaround applies equally.

No prior meetings are on record, so the head-to-head offers no historical pattern to lean on. The sample is too small to draw any conclusions.

Kottern's home games have been tighter than their overall recent form: 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded at home versus 0.8 and 1.4 in their last five. Wasserburg's road matches have been more open, with 2.0 scored but 3.33 conceded away compared to 2.0 and 2.4 overall. The projected 1-0 scoreline fits the smaller home goal totals.

Both teams are on a three-day turnaround, flagged as congested. There is no head-to-head history, and the model's confidence is medium. Kottern's recent form includes three losses in five.

The Poisson model gives Kottern a 52.9% win probability, with the draw at 28.6% and Wasserburg at 18.5%. It projects a 1-0 scoreline as the most likely exact score (18.2%), and expects about 1.99 total goals with only a 35.5% chance that each side scores at least once. The margin distribution is close: a draw (28.6%) and a one-goal home win (27.4%) are the top two margin outcomes, with a home win by two or more at 25.5%. Model confidence is medium.

The data points to a narrow Kottern win, with the model giving them a 52.9% probability. Yet the draw is a significant alternative at 28.6%, and the lack of prior meetings plus medium confidence tempers certainty. A low-scoring game is the clearest projection, with 1-0 the most plausible exact scoreline.