Korona Kielce IIvsAKS 1947 Busko-Zdrój

Korona Kielce II host AKS 1947 Busko-Zdrój in round 6 of Polish III liga Group IV, with both sides enjoying a full week between matches. The model leans clearly toward the visitors, giving AKS a 51.6% win probability against 28% for the hosts. No league-table data is available for either team, so these projections rest on recent form and limited venue samples.

Korona Kielce II's last five results read WDLLL — a win followed by a draw and three defeats — with 13 goals scored and 15 conceded across those games. The scoring rate over that stretch (2.6 per game) trails the concession rate (3.0 per game). Only one of the five was a victory.

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdrój have gone DLLWD across their last five, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded in that span. That yields averages of 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, with one win, two draws and two defeats.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides, so historical precedent offers no guidance. The model's forecast is built entirely on current form and the limited venue splits available.

At home, Korona Kielce II have no wins in their last two matches (0W 1D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Away, AKS are 1W 1D 1L in their last three, averaging 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. The splits move in opposite directions: the hosts' home scoring rate (1.5) is below their recent overall rate (2.6), while the visitors' away scoring rate (1.67) exceeds their recent overall rate (1.4).

Both sides come into this match on seven days' rest, so there is no scheduling advantage either way. The data sample is thin — two home matches for the hosts and three away matches for the visitors — and no league table record is provided. The model rates its confidence as medium, which is appropriate given those limits.

The model projects a 1-2 home defeat, with expected goals of 1.59 to 2.20 and a combined total of about 3.79. It gives the away win a 51.6% probability, the draw 20.5%, and the home win 28%, with the leading exact scoreline at 1-2 (8.7%). The margin distribution is away-leaning: a 31% chance of an away win by two or more and a 20.5% chance of a one-goal away win. The model also puts a 70.8% chance on both teams scoring.

The data collectively points to an AKS 1947 Busko-Zdrój victory, backed by their superior away split and the hosts' winless home record. The draw remains a live possibility at 20.5%, and a home win cannot be dismissed given their recent attacking output. But on the available evidence, the away side is the more probable winner.