Köln2-1Real Sociedad

This is a club friendly between Köln and Real Sociedad, played at RheinEnergieStadion on 8 August 2026. Neither side has a league table entry in the provided data, and the two clubs have no prior meetings on record. The most notable number is the model's win probability: home side Köln are given a 60.6% chance, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. The model expects 2.43 goals for Köln and 1.38 for Real Sociedad.

Given the sparse data — no league standing, no head-to-head history — the model output is the primary guide. The confidence level is medium, so the probabilities should be read as indicative rather than precise.

Köln's home record over the last 20 matches shows 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, a win rate of 35%. They have averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per home match. In their last five matches, the results read WLLDL (most recent first), with an average of 2.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Their last match was on 23 July 2026, giving them 16 days of rest.

Real Sociedad's away record over the last 20 matches shows 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses, a win rate of 20%. They have averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per away match. In their last five matches, the results are WDLDD, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Their last match was on 28 July 2026, giving them 11 days of rest.

There are no prior meetings between Köln and Real Sociedad in the provided data. With no head-to-head record to draw on, the historical comparison cannot inform the prediction.

The absence of any head-to-head matches means any assessment must rely on each side's recent form and the model's projections. This is a sample of zero encounters, offering no direct evidence of how these two sides match up.

The match takes place at RheinEnergieStadion, Köln's home ground. Köln's last 20 home matches have produced a 35% win rate, while Real Sociedad's last 20 away matches have produced a 20% win rate. The home side also average more goals at home (1.9) than Real Sociedad average away (1.3), though both concede at 1.6 per game.

Köln enter with 16 days of rest, Real Sociedad with 11. Neither is a short turnaround, but the difference in rest is small. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, the lack of any head-to-head record and the absence of league table data mean the statistical foundation is limited.

The most concrete factor is the differential in home/away form: Köln's home win rate is 15 percentage points higher than Real Sociedad's away win rate. The model translates this into a 60.6% home win probability, but the combined probability of a draw or away win is 39.4%, which is substantial.

The Poisson goal model assigns a 60.6% probability to a Köln win, 18.8% to a draw, and 20.6% to a Real Sociedad win. The projected score is 2-1, with expected goals of 2.43 for Köln and 1.38 for Real Sociedad. The most likely exact scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (7.5%), and 3-1 (7.3%). The model's confidence is medium, meaning these probabilities carry moderate uncertainty.

Note that the 2-1 scoreline, while the single most likely, occurs only 9% of the time in the model. The cumulative probability of all other scorelines is 91%, so a range of outcomes remain plausible.

The data on hand points toward a home win. Köln's home form is stronger than Real Sociedad's away form, and the model gives them a clear majority probability. The projected 2-1 scoreline is the modal outcome. However, the medium confidence and the 39.4% combined chance of a draw or away win mean the projection is far from certain. The lack of head-to-head history also leaves a meaningful unknown. If the model's estimates hold, a 2-1 home victory is the most plausible result.