KDV Tomsk1-0Khimik Dzerzhinsk

This Russia FNL 2 Group 4 fixture pairs KDV Tomsk with Khimik Dzerzhinsk, both arriving on a full week's rest. The model strongly favours the away side, giving Khimik a 74.4% win probability. Neither side has league table data on record, so this preview leans on recent form and the projection.

KDV Tomsk are unbeaten in their last three home matches (2W 1D), averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1 conceded. Their last five overall outings show four wins and a draw, with a 2.2 goals-per-game average. The home sample is small but shows solid consistency.

Khimik Dzerzhinsk have won both of their last two away matches, scoring 3.5 per game and conceding 0.5. Their recent five-match run features four wins and one loss, with 3.2 scored on average. The away numbers are eye-catching but based on just two games.

No prior meetings between KDV Tomsk and Khimik Dzerzhinsk are on record. The head-to-head history therefore offers nothing to lean on for this fixture.

At home, KDV Tomsk have a 66.7% win rate in the last three, with scoring slightly below their recent overall average (1.67 vs 2.2). Khimik's away scoring average (3.5) is higher than their recent overall average (3.2), though that gap rests on a two-match sample.

Both sides have had seven days since their last competitive match, so preparation time is even. The lack of league table data and the small venue-based samples add uncertainty to any read. The model rates its own confidence as medium.

The model's most likely outcome is a Khimik Dzerzhinsk win, with a 74.4% probability; a draw sits at 16.6% and a home win at 9%. The projected scoreline is 0-2, and the most likely exact scores are 0-2, 0-1, and 0-3. Total goals are expected around 2.97, with a 79.6% chance of at least two goals and a 43.7% chance both teams score. The margin projection gives an away win by two or more goals a 50.8% probability and an away win by one 23.5%.

The data points firmly toward a Khimik Dzerzhinsk victory, supported by their away scoring form and the model's projected 0-2 scoreline. The main uncertainty is the small away sample and the absence of head-to-head meetings. If KDV Tomsk extend their unbeaten home run, the outcome could be closer than the model suggests.